Atromitos 1-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours PAOK (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Atromitos face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
PAOK travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos in Super League 1 (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Atromitos have gone 1W 6D 3L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Atromitos have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAOK — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
PAOK away from home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. PAOK's 2.30 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Atromitos's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Atromitos's games and 70% of PAOK's (from Atromitos's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
PAOK have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Atromitos.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2024, ended Atromitos 0–2 PAOK — a PAOK win.
PAOK have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Atromitos trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
PAOK trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 60% versus PAOK 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 46% | PAOK 69%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Atromitos surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while PAOK have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.13 xG and PAOK 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.023 / defence 0.999 | PAOK attack 1.158 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.251. Data: built from Atromitos's last 28 games and PAOK's last 28. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 29% | Draw 28% | PAOK 44%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 3.49 | Draw 3.59 | PAOK 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Atromitos's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atromitos 60% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Atromitos 28 games, PAOK 28) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 3 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 29% | Draw 28% | PAOK 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Atromitos 1.13 / PAOK 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.023 / def 0.999 | PAOK attack 1.158 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: PAOK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.45
PAOK xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atromitos vs PAOK FAQs
What time does Atromitos vs PAOK kick off?
Atromitos vs PAOK kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs PAOK?
Atromitos 1 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Atromitos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs PAOK part of?
Atromitos vs PAOK is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 3) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 29% chance of winning, PAOK a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atromitos and PAOK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atromitos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 1.02x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atromitos's last 28 games and PAOK's last 28, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
29%
3.49
28%
3.59
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.58
1.45
PAOK xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
7%
14.85
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atromitos vs PAOK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Atromitos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.45 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atromitos's recent record stands at 7W 15D 13L from 35 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 25W 5D 5L across 35 games — 2.29 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 1.26 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 5W 7D 5L from their last 17 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 11W 3D 3L across their last 17 away games, a 2.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.49 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atromitos have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: PAOK in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
Atromitos (Home) vs PAOK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atromitos
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Atromitos vs PAOK Form FAQs
What form are Atromitos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 7W 15D 13L in their last 35 games (1.03 PPG), while PAOK have gone 25W 5D 5L in their last 35 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.29 PPG; PAOK away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Atromitos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, PAOK in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Dec 2024, when PAOK won PAOK 3-0 Atromitos.
Atromitos's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Atromitos
1
Draws
8
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Atromitos vs PAOK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAOK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atromitos have won 1, PAOK have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Atromitos and PAOK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Atromitos 1-2 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 59%, PAOK 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Atromitos) and 71% (PAOK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atromitos vs PAOK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atromitos and PAOK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Atromitos's games and 71% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Atromitos and PAOK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Atromitos's matches and 71% of PAOK's.
Do Atromitos and PAOK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Atromitos's recent matches and 82% of PAOK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Atromitos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Atromitos 1-2 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.13 xG and PAOK 1.45 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against PAOK attack 1.16 / defence 0.95, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 29% | Draw 28% | PAOK 44%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 46%, PAOK 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.