Volos NFC 1-3 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panthessaliko Stadio plays host to Volos NFC versus OFI in Super League 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Volos NFC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos NFC have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Panthessaliko Stadio this season.
OFI's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Volos NFC's favour (1.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Volos NFC 1W, OFI 1W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with OFI winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
OFI half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 54% versus OFI 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 57% | OFI 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.37 xG and OFI 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.903 / defence 1.121 | OFI attack 0.821 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.188. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Volos NFC games / 28 OFI games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 42% | Draw 29% | OFI 29%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | OFI 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 70% | OFI 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 42% | Draw 29% | OFI 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Volos NFC 1.37 / OFI 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.903 / def 1.121 | OFI attack 0.821 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
OFI xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs OFI kick off?
Volos NFC vs OFI kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs OFI?
Volos NFC 1 - 3 OFI.
Where is Volos NFC vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs OFI part of?
Volos NFC vs OFI is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 42% chance of winning, OFI a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Volos NFC and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and OFI?
Record (4 meetings): Volos NFC 1W | Draws 2 | OFI 1W.
What form are Volos NFC and OFI in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. OFI (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against OFI's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.82x) against Volos NFC's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
42%
2.37
29%
3.48
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.46
1.09
OFI xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
7%
13.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.09 for OFI, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 9W 9D 17L from 35 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 7W 15D 13L across 35 games — 1.03 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Volos NFC against 1.03 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 5W 4D 8L from 17 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 0W 8D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.47 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of OFI's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Volos NFC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Volos NFC are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.06 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and OFI in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 9W 9D 17L in their last 35 games (1.03 PPG), while OFI have gone 7W 15D 13L in their last 35 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or OFI away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.12 PPG; OFI away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 4-0 on 23 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Volos NFC have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
4
Draws
4
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 2, OFI have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when OFI 3-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 71%, OFI 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Volos NFC and 65% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play OFI?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Volos NFC's games and 47% of OFI's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Volos NFC's matches and 65% of OFI's.
Do Volos NFC and OFI tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, OFI in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OFI cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Volos NFC 1-3 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.37 xG and OFI 1.09 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. OFI outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.90 / defence 1.12 against OFI attack 0.82 / defence 1.29, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 42% | Draw 29% | OFI 29%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual OFI win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 57%, OFI 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.03 PPG, OFI 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.