Atromitos 1-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atromitos face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 January 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Peristeriou this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Peristeriou this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Atromitos's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Atromitos.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
It is worth noting that Olympiakos Piraeus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 57% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 51% | Olympiakos Piraeus 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 0.77 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.810 / defence 1.018 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.154 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.158. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Atromitos games / 44 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 21% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 51%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.96. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 50% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 21% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Atromitos 0.77 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.810 / def 1.018 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.154 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Atromitos 1 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 21% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (6 meetings): Atromitos 0W | Draws 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus 4W.
What form are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Atromitos (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.81x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
21%
4.75
28%
3.57
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.13
1.36
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
4.75
21%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
47%
2.15
Win to Nil
5%
18.52
24%
4.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 16.2 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.36 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos come into this having played 51 games, going 13W 17D 21L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.08 PPG from 51 outings (32W 10D 9L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Atromitos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Atromitos's home form reads 7W 9D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 1.85 points per game from 26 outings (14W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.98 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 13W 17D 21L in their last 51 games (1.10 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 32W 10D 9L in their last 51 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.15 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Atromitos
2
Draws
8
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 58%, Olympiakos Piraeus 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Atromitos) and 42% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 38%; Atromitos have failed to score in 38% of games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Atromitos's recent matches and 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Atromitos's recent games and 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Atromitos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Atromitos 1-2 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 0.77 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.36 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.15 / defence 0.78, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 21% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 51%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 51%, Olympiakos Piraeus 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.