Apollon Smirnis 0-3 OFI – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates OFI at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Apollon Smirnis vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Apollon Smirnis host OFI at Stadio Georgios Kamaras in Super League 1 (matchday 13). Kick-off is Wednesday 12 January 2022 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Apollon Smirnis — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Apollon Smirnis at home: 1W 4D 2L from their last 7 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, OFI have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 1L across their last 7 road games (1.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. OFI's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Apollon Smirnis's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Apollon Smirnis trading profile (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 17% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 54% of games.
OFI trading profile (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Apollon Smirnis 38% versus OFI 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Apollon Smirnis 46% | OFI 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Apollon Smirnis 0.64 xG and OFI 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.687 / defence 0.915 | OFI attack 0.818 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.168. Apollon Smirnis's attack rating of 0.687 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Data: built from Apollon Smirnis's last 13 games and OFI's last 16.
Result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 25% | Draw 36% | OFI 39%. Fair-value odds: Apollon Smirnis 3.99 | Draw 2.77 | OFI 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS Yes probability 28% | Total xG 1.51. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.51 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Apollon Smirnis's lower xG of 0.64 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 81% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Apollon Smirnis's last 7 home games and OFI's last 7 away games) averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 72%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Apollon Smirnis 29% (last 7 home games) | OFI 43% (last 7 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Apollon Smirnis vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Kamaras • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 January 2022 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 25% | Draw 36% | OFI 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% (Under 81%) | BTTS Yes 28% (No 72%) | xG Apollon Smirnis 0.64 / OFI 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.687 / def 0.915 | OFI attack 0.818 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: OFI (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Apollon Smirnis xG
Expected Goals
0.87
OFI xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs OFI FAQs
What time does Apollon Smirnis vs OFI kick off?
Apollon Smirnis vs OFI kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Wednesday 12 January 2022 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What was the final score in Apollon Smirnis vs OFI?
Apollon Smirnis 0 - 3 OFI.
Where is Apollon Smirnis vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What competition is Apollon Smirnis vs OFI part of?
Apollon Smirnis vs OFI is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 13) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Apollon Smirnis vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Apollon Smirnis a 25% chance of winning, OFI a 39% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Apollon Smirnis vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Apollon Smirnis and OFI will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (72%).
Will Apollon Smirnis vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (81%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Apollon Smirnis's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against OFI's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.64. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Apollon Smirnis's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Apollon Smirnis's last 13 games and OFI's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.7%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
25%
3.99
36%
2.77
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
19.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Apollon Smirnis xG
Total xG
1.51
0.87
OFI xG
3.99
25%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.63
72%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
53%
1.89
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
20%
4.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.0 | 19.2 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs OFI Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Apollon Smirnis vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.6%.
How many goals are Apollon Smirnis and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Apollon Smirnis and 0.87 for OFI, a combined total of 1.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Apollon Smirnis vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Apollon Smirnis's recent record stands at 1W 5D 7L from 13 games, a 0.62 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 3L across 13 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours OFI by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Apollon Smirnis heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Apollon Smirnis have managed 1W 4D 1L from their last 6 home games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.62 PPG overall — Apollon Smirnis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
OFI's away record stands at 3W 2D 1L across their last 6 away games, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Apollon Smirnis are averaging 0.54 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.15 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OFI in 62%.
Defensively: Apollon Smirnis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
OFI
Blended
Apollon Smirnis (Home) vs OFI (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs OFI Form FAQs
What form are Apollon Smirnis and OFI in coming into this match?
Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while OFI have gone 5W 5D 3L in their last 13 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Apollon Smirnis at home or OFI away?
OFI's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Apollon Smirnis at home: 1.17 PPG; OFI away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Apollon Smirnis or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Apollon Smirnis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, OFI in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 9 April 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Jan 2022, when OFI won Apollon Smirnis 0-3 OFI.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Apollon Smirnis
0
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs OFI H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and OFI?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Apollon Smirnis have won 1, OFI have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Apollon Smirnis and OFI last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 April 2022: OFI 1-2 Apollon Smirnis.
Who has won more matches between Apollon Smirnis and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Apollon Smirnis's games tend to start slowly — only 17% have a goal by half-time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Apollon Smirnis 17% BTTS, OFI 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Apollon Smirnis and 33% for OFI.
On the defensive side: Apollon Smirnis keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; OFI in 33%; Apollon Smirnis have failed to score in 67% of games; OFI in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Apollon Smirnis home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs OFI Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Apollon Smirnis and OFI matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 50% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Apollon Smirnis and OFI matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Apollon Smirnis's recent games and 33% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Apollon Smirnis and OFI matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 17% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 83% of OFI's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant OFI run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Apollon Smirnis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Apollon Smirnis 0-3 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Apollon Smirnis 0.64 xG and OFI 0.87 xG, a combined 1.51. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. OFI outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Apollon Smirnis attack 0.69 / defence 0.92 against OFI attack 0.82 / defence 0.87, drawn from 13/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Apollon Smirnis 25% | Draw 36% | OFI 39%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Apollon Smirnis 46%, OFI 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
OFI's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.62. That form edge translated into the three points. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.