Apollon Smirnis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Apollon Smirnis vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Apollon Smirnis and Olympiakos Piraeus meet at Stadio Georgios Kamaras in Super League 1, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 5 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Apollon Smirnis have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Apollon Smirnis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Apollon Smirnis at Stadio Georgios Kamaras this season: 1W 3D 2L from 6 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 10W 0D 0L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 7W 0D 0L from 7 road trips in Super League 1 this season (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.43 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Olympiakos Piraeus arrive in superior form — a 2.30 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Apollon Smirnis lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2021, ended 1–4 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Apollon Smirnis half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Apollon Smirnis 42% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Apollon Smirnis 50% | Olympiakos Piraeus 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Apollon Smirnis 0.81 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.766 / defence 1.062 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.322 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.048 / away 1.215. Apollon Smirnis's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 Apollon Smirnis games / 15 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 17% | Draw 24% | Olympiakos Piraeus 59%. Fair-value odds: Apollon Smirnis 5.88 | Draw 4.17 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Apollon Smirnis 33% | Olympiakos Piraeus 71%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Apollon Smirnis vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Kamaras • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 17% | Draw 24% | Olympiakos Piraeus 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Apollon Smirnis 0.81 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.766 / def 1.062 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.322 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.048 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Apollon Smirnis xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Apollon Smirnis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Apollon Smirnis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 5 January 2022 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What was the final score in Apollon Smirnis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Apollon Smirnis 0 - 0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Apollon Smirnis vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What competition is Apollon Smirnis vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Apollon Smirnis vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Apollon Smirnis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Apollon Smirnis a 17% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 59% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Apollon Smirnis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Apollon Smirnis and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Apollon Smirnis vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (1 meetings): Apollon Smirnis 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1W.
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Apollon Smirnis's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.32x) against Apollon Smirnis's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 12/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-2 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
17%
5.72
24%
4.21
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Apollon Smirnis xG
Total xG
2.51
1.71
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
5.72
17%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
3%
31.52
26%
3.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 13.8 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Apollon Smirnis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Apollon Smirnis and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Apollon Smirnis and 1.71 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Apollon Smirnis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Apollon Smirnis come into this having played 12 games, going 1W 4D 7L for 0.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Apollon Smirnis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.83 PPG from 12 outings (11W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.25 PPG clear of Apollon Smirnis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Apollon Smirnis's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.58 PPG overall — Apollon Smirnis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 3.00 points per game from 6 outings (6W 0D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Apollon Smirnis are averaging 0.58 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.83 scored and 0.58 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 4D 7L in their last 12 games (0.58 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 11W 1D 0L in their last 12 (2.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Apollon Smirnis at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Apollon Smirnis at home: 1.00 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Apollon Smirnis or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Apollon Smirnis have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Apollon Smirnis
1
Draws
1
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 2 meetings on record, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Apollon Smirnis and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 5 January 2022, when Apollon Smirnis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Apollon Smirnis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Apollon Smirnis see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Apollon Smirnis 33%, Olympiakos Piraeus 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Apollon Smirnis) and 83% (Olympiakos Piraeus). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Apollon Smirnis keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 33%; Apollon Smirnis have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Apollon Smirnis home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Apollon Smirnis play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 67% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Apollon Smirnis vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Apollon Smirnis's matches and 83% of Olympiakos Piraeus's.
Do Apollon Smirnis and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Apollon Smirnis have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Apollon Smirnis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Regular Season - 16, as Apollon Smirnis and Olympiakos Piraeus drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Apollon Smirnis 0.81 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.71 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Apollon Smirnis fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Apollon Smirnis attack 0.77 / defence 1.06 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.32 / defence 1.00, drawn from 12/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Apollon Smirnis 17% | Draw 24% | Olympiakos Piraeus 59%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Apollon Smirnis 50%, Olympiakos Piraeus 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.83 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.