AEK Athens FC vs PAOK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Allwyn Arena to face AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
AEK Athens FC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. AEK Athens FC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Allwyn Arena, AEK Athens FC have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allwyn Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAOK (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, PAOK have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. AEK Athens FC's 2.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of PAOK's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for AEK Athens FC, 4 for PAOK and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 37% versus PAOK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 43% | PAOK 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 2.17 xG and PAOK 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.556 / defence 0.714 | PAOK attack 1.194 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 0.959. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.556 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.714 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 29 AEK Athens FC games / 28 PAOK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 66% | Draw 23% | PAOK 11%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | PAOK 9.09. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (66%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
PAOK lead the H2H ledger, but AEK Athens FC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: AEK Athens FC 30% | PAOK 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Allwyn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 66% | Draw 23% | PAOK 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 52% | xG AEK Athens FC 2.17 / PAOK 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.556 / def 0.714 | PAOK attack 1.194 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.555 / away 0.959 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.82
PAOK xG
52%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs PAOK kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs PAOK is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Allwyn Arena.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Allwyn Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK part of?
AEK Athens FC vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 66% chance of winning, PAOK a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AEK Athens FC and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
Record (10 meetings): AEK Athens FC 2W | Draws 4 | PAOK 4W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAOK in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. PAOK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.56x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.19x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
The sample (29/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
66%
1.51
23%
4.34
11%
9.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.99
0.82
PAOK xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
9.33
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
11%
8.75
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
1%
81.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.82 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AEK Athens FC come into this having played 35 games, going 23W 10D 2L for 2.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 2.00 PPG from 35 outings (20W 10D 5L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.26 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 2.00 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
AEK Athens FC's home form reads 15W 2D 1L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.61 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.50 points per game from 18 outings (7W 6D 5L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAOK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.89 scored and 0.83 conceded. AEK Athens FC's scoring rate against PAOK's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games; PAOK in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAOK in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 23W 10D 2L in their last 35 games (2.26 PPG), while PAOK have gone 20W 10D 5L in their last 35 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or PAOK away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.61 PPG; PAOK away: 1.50 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, PAOK in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 3-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AEK Athens FC
4
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 2, PAOK have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 28%, PAOK 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AEK Athens FC) and 67% (PAOK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 61% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 67% of PAOK's.
Do AEK Athens FC and PAOK tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, PAOK in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.