AEK Athens FC 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Allwyn Arena to face AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
AEK Athens FC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Allwyn Arena this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allwyn Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.80 vs 2.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — AEK Athens FC have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, Olympiakos Piraeus have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to AEK Athens FC's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
It is worth noting that Olympiakos Piraeus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
AEK Athens FC — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 35% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 39% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.20 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.261 / defence 0.756 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.115 / defence 0.675. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.095. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — their λ of 1.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.675 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 AEK Athens FC games / 43 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 42% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Allwyn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 42% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.20 / Olympiakos Piraeus 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.261 / def 0.756 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.115 / def 0.675 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Allwyn Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
AEK Athens FC 1 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Allwyn Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 42% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (7 meetings): AEK Athens FC 1W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 6W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.26x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.11x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
42%
2.37
29%
3.40
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.12
0.92
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
9%
11.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.92 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 29W 7D 13L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 36W 9D 4L from 49 games, 2.39 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AEK Athens FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 2.12 PPG from 24 outings (16W 3D 5L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 16W 4D 4L from 24 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.88 scored and 0.61 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking output running into AEK Athens FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 29W 7D 13L in their last 49 games (1.92 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 36W 9D 4L in their last 49 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.12 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.17 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AEK Athens FC
2
Draws
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AEK Athens FC 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (AEK Athens FC) and 33% (Olympiakos Piraeus) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (AEK Athens FC) and 33% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 33% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 33% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allwyn Arena, Regular Season - 19, as AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.20 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.92 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.76 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.11 / defence 0.68, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 42% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 39%, Olympiakos Piraeus 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.