SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 welcome SC Freiburg to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor in Bundesliga (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 14 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 home games (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, SC Freiburg have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Freiburg are 0.50 PPG ahead (0.80 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, SC Freiburg 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended SV Darmstadt 98 1–1 SC Freiburg — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 52% versus SC Freiburg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 55% | SC Freiburg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.09 xG and SC Freiburg 2.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.673 / defence 1.660 | SC Freiburg attack 0.994 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.387. SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating of 0.673 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.660 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SC Freiburg's projected output up. Data: built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 28 games and SC Freiburg's last 62.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 15% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 63%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 6.48 | Draw 4.60 | SC Freiburg 1.59. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (63%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.09 / 2.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 home games and SC Freiburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SV Darmstadt 98 40% (last 10 home games) | SC Freiburg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 29 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 15% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.09 / SC Freiburg 2.29 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.673 / def 1.660 | SC Freiburg attack 0.994 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
2.29
SC Freiburg xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Freiburg FAQs
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Freiburg kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Freiburg?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Freiburg part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Freiburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 29) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 15% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 63% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Freiburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (0.67) and SC Freiburg's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 2.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 28 games and SC Freiburg's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
15%
6.48
22%
4.60
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.9%
Away win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.38
2.29
SC Freiburg xG
6.48
15%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
10%
9.86
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
2%
63.83
21%
4.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Freiburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 2.29 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 62 games, going 22W 15D 25L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.53 PPG from 62 outings (27W 14D 21L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.31 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 12W 8D 11L across their last 31 home games, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.32 points per game from their last 31 away games (12W 5D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.47 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
SC Freiburg
Current Season
SV Darmstadt 98 (Home) vs SC Freiburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
SC Freiburg
Current Season
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Freiburg Form FAQs
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 15D 25L in their last 62 games (1.31 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 27W 14D 21L in their last 62 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or SC Freiburg away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.42 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.32 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 14 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Freiburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Freiburg?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Freiburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 April 2024: SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 55%, SC Freiburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for SV Darmstadt 98 and 68% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 36%; SC Freiburg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Freiburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Freiburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 48% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Freiburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 68% of SC Freiburg's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Freiburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 68% of SC Freiburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out SV Darmstadt 98 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.09 xG and SC Freiburg 2.29 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.67 / defence 1.66 against SC Freiburg attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 15% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 63%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 55%, SC Freiburg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.31 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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