FSV Mainz 05 4-0 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 host SV Darmstadt 98 at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MEWA ARENA, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
FSV Mainz 05 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.90 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, SV Darmstadt 98 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 61% versus SV Darmstadt 98 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 54% | SV Darmstadt 98 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.38 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.737 / defence 0.808 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.756 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.432. FSV Mainz 05's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 FSV Mainz 05 games / 27 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 46% | Draw 33% | SV Darmstadt 98 21%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | SV Darmstadt 98 4.76. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FSV Mainz 05 are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: FSV Mainz 05 40% | SV Darmstadt 98 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 46% | Draw 33% | SV Darmstadt 98 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.38 / SV Darmstadt 98 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.737 / def 0.808 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.756 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
0.87
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
FSV Mainz 05 4 - 0 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 46% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (1 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 0W | Draws 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 0W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FSV Mainz 05's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against SV Darmstadt 98's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
46%
2.17
33%
3.04
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.25
0.87
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
5%
18.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.7 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.87 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FSV Mainz 05 come into this having played 61 games, going 15W 21D 25L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.33 PPG from 61 outings (22W 15D 24L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.08 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FSV Mainz 05's home form reads 9W 10D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.23 points per game from 30 outings (10W 7D 13L).
The Goals Picture
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.28 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 15W 21D 25L in their last 61 games (1.08 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 15D 24L in their last 61 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.23 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FSV Mainz 05 and SV Darmstadt 98 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FSV Mainz 05
1
Draws
0
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 2 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when FSV Mainz 05 4-0 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and SV Darmstadt 98?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 57%, SV Darmstadt 98 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FSV Mainz 05) and 53% (SV Darmstadt 98).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play SV Darmstadt 98?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 53% of SV Darmstadt 98's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FSV Mainz 05 run riot with a 4-0 hammering of SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat SV Darmstadt 98 4-0 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.38 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 0.87 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.74 / defence 0.81 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.76 / defence 1.17, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 46% | Draw 33% | SV Darmstadt 98 21%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 54%, SV Darmstadt 98 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.08 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.