SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SV Darmstadt 98 face 1. FC Heidenheim.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
1. FC Heidenheim travel to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98 in Bundesliga (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 home games (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
1. FC Heidenheim — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SV Darmstadt 98 0.60 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, 1. FC Heidenheim 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended SV Darmstadt 98 2–3 1. FC Heidenheim — a 1. FC Heidenheim win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 50% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 53% | 1. FC Heidenheim 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SV Darmstadt 98 surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while 1. FC Heidenheim have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.04 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.608 / defence 1.526 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.922 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.411. SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating of 0.608 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.526 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output up. Data: built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 30 games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 30.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 18% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 58%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 5.71 | Draw 4.02 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1.74. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Heidenheim (58%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 home games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Darmstadt 98 30% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Heidenheim 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 31 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 18% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.04 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.608 / def 1.526 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.922 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.99
1. FC Heidenheim xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim FAQs
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 31) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 18% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (0.61) and 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 30 games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
18%
5.71
25%
4.02
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.02
1.99
1. FC Heidenheim xG
5.71
18%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
14%
7.29
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
2%
41.61
20%
4.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.99 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 64 games, going 23W 15D 26L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, 1. FC Heidenheim sit at 1.58 PPG from 64 outings (27W 20D 17L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.31 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 12W 8D 12L across their last 32 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Heidenheim have taken 1.22 points per game from their last 32 away games (9W 12D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.72 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
SV Darmstadt 98 (Home) vs 1. FC Heidenheim (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim Form FAQs
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 23W 15D 26L in their last 64 games (1.31 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 27W 20D 17L in their last 64 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.38 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.22 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2021. They cover more than one competition — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
1. FC Heidenheim have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting 1. FC Heidenheim specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
4
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 April 2024: SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 53%, 1. FC Heidenheim 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 50% (1. FC Heidenheim).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 59% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 50% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 75% of 1. FC Heidenheim's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Heidenheim edge out SV Darmstadt 98 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.04 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.99 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.61 / defence 1.53 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 18% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 58%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 53%, 1. FC Heidenheim 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.31 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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