SC Freiburg 3-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SC Freiburg (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SC Freiburg face FC Augsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg meet at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Freiburg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Europa-Park Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in SC Freiburg's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, FC Augsburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, SC Freiburg are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with FC Augsburg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SC Freiburg and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 58% and FC Augsburg 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 65% | FC Augsburg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.20 xG and FC Augsburg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.946 / defence 1.060 | FC Augsburg attack 0.750 / defence 1.440. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.694. FC Augsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.440 — this is suppressing SC Freiburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 SC Freiburg games / 40 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 56% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 22%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | FC Augsburg 4.55. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 90% | FC Augsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 56% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG SC Freiburg 2.20 / FC Augsburg 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.946 / def 1.060 | FC Augsburg attack 0.750 / def 1.440 | league avg home 1.613 / away 1.694 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.35
FC Augsburg xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg kick off?
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
SC Freiburg 3 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg part of?
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 56% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
Record (6 meetings): SC Freiburg 5W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.20. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.75x) against SC Freiburg's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.48
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.54
1.35
FC Augsburg xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
11%
9.00
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
2%
41.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.35 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 15W 9D 16L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Augsburg's form line: 12W 10D 18L from 40 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.15 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 3D 12L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.48 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 games (1.35 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 12W 10D 18L in their last 40 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or FC Augsburg away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.32 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.79 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 0-4 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
SC Freiburg
2
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for SC Freiburg, 58% for FC Augsburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for SC Freiburg and 68% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of SC Freiburg's games and 58% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of SC Freiburg's matches and 68% of FC Augsburg's.
Do SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat FC Augsburg 3-1 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.20 xG and FC Augsburg 1.35 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.95 / defence 1.06 against FC Augsburg attack 0.75 / defence 1.44, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 56% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 22%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 65%, FC Augsburg 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.35 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.