RB Leipzig 1-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours RB Leipzig (63%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as RB Leipzig face Werder Bremen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Werder Bremen travel to Red Bull Arena to take on RB Leipzig in Bundesliga (matchday 33). The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, RB Leipzig stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, RB Leipzig have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Werder Bremen — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Werder Bremen have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
RB Leipzig carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of RB Leipzig: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Werder Bremen, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Dec 2023, ended RB Leipzig 1–1 Werder Bremen — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both RB Leipzig and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
RB Leipzig trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Werder Bremen trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RB Leipzig 59% and Werder Bremen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (RB Leipzig 68% | Werder Bremen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 2.01 xG and Werder Bremen 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.252 / defence 0.668 | Werder Bremen attack 0.908 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.409. RB Leipzig carry an above-average attack rating of 1.252 — their 2.01 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. RB Leipzig have a tight defence (rating 0.668), which is pulling Werder Bremen's projected output down. Data: built from RB Leipzig's last 66 games and Werder Bremen's last 66.
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 63% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 13%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.60 | Draw 4.16 | Werder Bremen 7.46. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (63%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RB Leipzig as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: RB Leipzig 40% (last 10 home games) | Werder Bremen 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 33 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 63% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG RB Leipzig 2.01 / Werder Bremen 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.252 / def 0.668 | Werder Bremen attack 0.908 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Werder Bremen xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen FAQs
What time does RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen kick off?
RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen?
RB Leipzig 1 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen part of?
RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 33) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 63% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from RB Leipzig's attack rating (1.25) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from RB Leipzig's last 66 games and Werder Bremen's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
63%
1.60
24%
4.16
13%
7.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
2.86
0.85
Werder Bremen xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
7.46
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
13%
7.45
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
2%
55.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 0.85 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RB Leipzig's recent record stands at 39W 12D 15L from 66 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 32L across 66 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Leipzig by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Werder Bremen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, RB Leipzig have managed 24W 5D 4L from their last 33 home games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 9W 8D 16L across their last 33 away games, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Leipzig are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.42 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen in 64%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Current Season
Werder Bremen
Current Season
RB Leipzig (Home) vs Werder Bremen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RB Leipzig
Current Season
Werder Bremen
Current Season
❓ RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen Form FAQs
What form are RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 39W 12D 15L in their last 66 games (1.95 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 20W 14D 32L in their last 66 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or Werder Bremen away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.33 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.06 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or Werder Bremen been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Werder Bremen in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Apr 2021, when RB Leipzig won Werder Bremen 1-4 RB Leipzig.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
RB Leipzig
3
Draws
1
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, RB Leipzig have won 6, Werder Bremen have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Werder Bremen 3-1 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 52%, Werder Bremen 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for RB Leipzig and 58% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of RB Leipzig's games and 61% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of RB Leipzig's matches and 58% of Werder Bremen's.
Do RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of RB Leipzig's recent matches and 52% of Werder Bremen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen finished level at 1-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 2.01 xG and Werder Bremen 0.85 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. RB Leipzig fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.25 / defence 0.67 against Werder Bremen attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 63% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 13%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 68%, Werder Bremen 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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