Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt make the trip to BORUSSIA-PARK to face Borussia Mönchengladbach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at BORUSSIA-PARK, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1.20 for Eintracht Frankfurt — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Eintracht Frankfurt hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Eintracht Frankfurt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 67% and Eintracht Frankfurt 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.72 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.947 / defence 1.141 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.919 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.409. Data: 66 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 66 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 42% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 31%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 42% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.72 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.947 / def 1.141 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.919 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 42% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (5 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 2 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 0.95x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Eintracht Frankfurt's attack (0.92x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
42%
2.40
27%
3.72
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.20
1.48
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
6%
17.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.48 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 18W 22D 26L from 66 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 24W 23D 19L across 66 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Borussia Mönchengladbach against 1.44 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 15W 8D 10L from 33 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 8W 11D 14L across 33 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.61 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 67%.
Last 66 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 18W 22D 26L in their last 66 games (1.15 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 24W 23D 19L in their last 66 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.61 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Eintracht Frankfurt have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-0 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Eintracht Frankfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4
Draws
6
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 54%, Eintracht Frankfurt 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 70% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 70% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 70% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt finished level at 1-1 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.72 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.48 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 42% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 31%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%, Eintracht Frankfurt 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.15 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.