RB Leipzig 0-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Union Berlin travel to Red Bull Arena to take on RB Leipzig in Bundesliga (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, RB Leipzig stand at 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, RB Leipzig have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Union Berlin — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Union Berlin have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
RB Leipzig are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. RB Leipzig's 30% BTTS rate and Union Berlin's 30% (from RB Leipzig's last 10 home games and Union Berlin's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for RB Leipzig, 4 for Union Berlin and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2024, ended RB Leipzig 2–0 Union Berlin — a RB Leipzig win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
RB Leipzig in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Leipzig 64% versus Union Berlin 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 67% | Union Berlin 44%). Note also that Union Berlin surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while RB Leipzig recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 1.50 xG and Union Berlin 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 0.982 / defence 0.760 | Union Berlin attack 0.844 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.430. RB Leipzig have a tight defence (rating 0.760), which is pulling Union Berlin's projected output down. Data: built from RB Leipzig's last 36 games and Union Berlin's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 49% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 21%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 2.04 | Draw 3.36 | Union Berlin 4.68. RB Leipzig hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (RB Leipzig's last 10 home games and Union Berlin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: RB Leipzig 30% (last 10 home games) | Union Berlin 30% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (RB Leipzig 36 games, Union Berlin 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 3 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 49% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG RB Leipzig 1.50 / Union Berlin 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 0.982 / def 0.760 | Union Berlin attack 0.844 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Union Berlin xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin FAQs
What time does RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin kick off?
RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
RB Leipzig 0 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin part of?
RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 3) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 49% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both RB Leipzig and Union Berlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from RB Leipzig's last 36 games and Union Berlin's last 36, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.36
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
2.41
0.92
Union Berlin xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
5%
20.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 0.92 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, RB Leipzig have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 21W 8D 7L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Union Berlin's form line: 10W 7D 19L from 36 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, RB Leipzig are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, RB Leipzig have posted 2.22 PPG from their last 18 home games (12W 4D 2L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 2W 5D 11L from their last 18 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Leipzig are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 0.97 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Leipzig have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Early Season
Union Berlin
Early Season
RB Leipzig (Home) vs Union Berlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RB Leipzig
Early Season
Union Berlin
Early Season
❓ RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin Form FAQs
What form are RB Leipzig and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 21W 8D 7L in their last 36 games (1.97 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 10W 7D 19L in their last 36 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or Union Berlin away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.22 PPG; Union Berlin away: 0.61 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 24 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Sep 2023, when RB Leipzig won Union Berlin 0-3 RB Leipzig.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
RB Leipzig
2
Draws
5
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, RB Leipzig have won 3, Union Berlin have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and Union Berlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 April 2026: RB Leipzig 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 44%, Union Berlin 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (RB Leipzig) and 33% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Union Berlin in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RB Leipzig and Union Berlin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of RB Leipzig's recent matches and 33% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are RB Leipzig and Union Berlin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of RB Leipzig's recent games and 33% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Leipzig and Union Berlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of RB Leipzig's recent matches and 56% of Union Berlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at RB Leipzig's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 3, as RB Leipzig and Union Berlin drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.50 xG and Union Berlin 0.92 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. RB Leipzig fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Union Berlin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 0.98 / defence 0.76 against Union Berlin attack 0.84 / defence 0.89, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 49% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 21%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 67%, Union Berlin 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union Berlin's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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