FC Augsburg 3-1 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 49%, yet in-form FC St. Pauli provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus FC St. Pauli in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Augsburg have posted 3W 3D 4L at WWK Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
FC St. Pauli (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC St. Pauli's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC St. Pauli are 1.00 PPG clear of FC Augsburg in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 67% and FC St. Pauli 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 64% | FC St. Pauli 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.68 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.979 / defence 1.013 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.680 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.556. Data: 36 FC Augsburg games / 2 FC St. Pauli games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 49% | Draw 29% | FC St. Pauli 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | FC St. Pauli 4.55. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC St. Pauli (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 50% | FC St. Pauli 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 49% | Draw 29% | FC St. Pauli 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Augsburg 1.68 / FC St. Pauli 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.979 / def 1.013 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.680 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.556 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.07
FC St. Pauli xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli?
FC Augsburg 3 - 1 FC St. Pauli.
Where is FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli part of?
FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 49% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Augsburg and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FC St. Pauli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and FC St. Pauli in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.98) and FC St. Pauli's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.68x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
The sample (36/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.48
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.76
1.07
FC St. Pauli xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
4%
24.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.07 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 10W 10D 16L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC St. Pauli's form line: 20W 9D 7L from 36 games, 1.92 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC St. Pauli are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.39 PPG from 18 outings (6W 7D 5L).
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 9W 4D 5L from 18 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.72 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; FC St. Pauli in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 games (1.11 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 20W 9D 7L in their last 36 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.39 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
1
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-1 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and FC St. Pauli?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for FC Augsburg, 67% for FC St. Pauli — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (FC Augsburg) and 56% (FC St. Pauli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of FC Augsburg's games and 67% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of FC Augsburg's matches and 56% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do FC Augsburg and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat FC St. Pauli 3-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.68 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.07 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Augsburg beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.68 / defence 1.05, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 49% | Draw 29% | FC St. Pauli 22%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 64%, FC St. Pauli 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.