RB Leipzig 0-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours RB Leipzig (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as RB Leipzig face Borussia Mönchengladbach.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Red Bull Arena plays host to RB Leipzig versus Borussia Mönchengladbach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RB Leipzig have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig at Red Bull Arena this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. RB Leipzig's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Borussia Mönchengladbach's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for RB Leipzig, 2 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with RB Leipzig winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
RB Leipzig half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RB Leipzig 58% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (RB Leipzig 63% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 1.74 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.139 / defence 0.699 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.839 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.461. RB Leipzig's defence rating of 0.699 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 RB Leipzig games / 43 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 55% | Draw 30% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 15%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 6.67. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: RB Leipzig 30% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 55% | Draw 30% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG RB Leipzig 1.74 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.139 / def 0.699 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.839 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
RB Leipzig 0 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 55% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (6 meetings): RB Leipzig 4W | Draws 0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W.
What form are RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates RB Leipzig's attack at 1.14x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack (0.84x) against RB Leipzig's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
55%
1.81
30%
3.36
15%
6.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
2.59
0.86
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
6.60
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
3%
37.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 0.86 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, RB Leipzig have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 25W 10D 8L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 11W 14D 18L from 43 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RB Leipzig are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Borussia Mönchengladbach.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, RB Leipzig have posted 2.24 PPG from 21 outings (14W 5D 2L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 8D 10L from 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RB Leipzig are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.65 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 72%.
Defensively: RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 25W 10D 8L in their last 43 games (1.98 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 11W 14D 18L in their last 43 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.24 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.81 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or Borussia Mönchengladbach been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RB Leipzig won 4-1 on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Leipzig have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
RB Leipzig
2
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 5, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when RB Leipzig 1-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 43%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for RB Leipzig and 67% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of RB Leipzig's games and 76% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of RB Leipzig's matches and 67% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at RB Leipzig's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach finished level at 0-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.74 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.86 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. RB Leipzig fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Borussia Mönchengladbach landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.14 / defence 0.70 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.84 / defence 0.93, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 55% | Draw 30% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 15%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 63%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.