1. FC Heidenheim 0-4 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to Voith-Arena to take on 1. FC Heidenheim. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Heidenheim stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Voith-Arena, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at Voith-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Eintracht Frankfurt are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1. FC Heidenheim register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for 1. FC Heidenheim, 2 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 64% and Eintracht Frankfurt 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 53% | Eintracht Frankfurt 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.30 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.787 / defence 1.017 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.141 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.428. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 1. FC Heidenheim games / 45 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 28% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Frankfurt 43%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | Eintracht Frankfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 28% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Frankfurt 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.30 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.787 / def 1.017 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.141 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
1. FC Heidenheim 0 - 4 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 28% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 0 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
28%
3.64
29%
3.43
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.95
1.66
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
3.64
28%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
5%
19.06
12%
8.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.66 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 13D 19L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eintracht Frankfurt sit at 1.56 PPG from 45 outings (18W 16D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 8W 6D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Frankfurt have taken 1.23 points per game from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L).
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.73 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 69%.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 games (1.16 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 18W 16D 11L in their last 45 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.36 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2024, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Heidenheim at 64%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 68% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Eintracht Frankfurt run riot with a 0-4 hammering of 1. FC Heidenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat 1. FC Heidenheim 0-4 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.30 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.66 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.79 / defence 1.02 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.14 / defence 0.99, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 28% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Frankfurt 43%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 53%, Eintracht Frankfurt 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.