FC Augsburg 1-2 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 34% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FC Augsburg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at WWK Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for FC Augsburg, 1.40 for Union Berlin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Historically, FC Augsburg have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with Union Berlin managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2025, ended 2–0 with FC Augsburg winning.
The historical record gives FC Augsburg a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 57% versus Union Berlin 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 57% | Union Berlin 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.05 xG and Union Berlin 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.673 / defence 0.878 | Union Berlin attack 0.809 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.481. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 FC Augsburg games / 67 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 34% | Draw 32% | Union Berlin 34%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Union Berlin 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 30% | Union Berlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 34% | Draw 32% | Union Berlin 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG FC Augsburg 1.05 / Union Berlin 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.673 / def 0.878 | Union Berlin attack 0.809 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.481 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Union Berlin xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
FC Augsburg 1 - 2 Union Berlin.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin part of?
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 34% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both FC Augsburg and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin?
Record (7 meetings): FC Augsburg 4W | Draws 3 | Union Berlin 0W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Union Berlin in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.67) and Union Berlin's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.81x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
34%
2.95
32%
3.08
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.11
1.05
Union Berlin xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
12%
8.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.05 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 21W 19D 27L from 67 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 32L across 67 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.06 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 12W 11D 10L from 33 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 6W 8D 19L across 33 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 21W 19D 27L in their last 67 games (1.22 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 18W 17D 32L in their last 67 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Union Berlin away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.42 PPG; Union Berlin away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Augsburg
4
Draws
2
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 4, Union Berlin have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Union Berlin 4-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 61%, Union Berlin 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Augsburg) and 42% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 27% of games; Union Berlin in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 33% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 42% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and Union Berlin tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat FC Augsburg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat FC Augsburg 1-2 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.05 xG and Union Berlin 1.05 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Union Berlin outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.67 / defence 0.88 against Union Berlin attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 34% | Draw 32% | Union Berlin 34%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 57%, Union Berlin 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.22 PPG, Union Berlin 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.