FC Augsburg 0-0 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 42%, yet the head-to-head data favours 1899 Hoffenheim — this FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC Augsburg welcome 1899 Hoffenheim to WWK Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Augsburg at 1.10 PPG versus 1899 Hoffenheim's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of FC Augsburg's games and 80% of 1899 Hoffenheim's (from FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, 1899 Hoffenheim have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches against 1 for FC Augsburg.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Apr 2024, ended FC Augsburg 1–3 1899 Hoffenheim — a 1899 Hoffenheim win.
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 70% and 1899 Hoffenheim 84% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Augsburg 67% | 1899 Hoffenheim 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.65 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.130 / defence 1.034 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.863 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.449. Data: built from FC Augsburg's last 43 games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 43.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 42% | Draw 31% | 1899 Hoffenheim 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.36 | Draw 3.25 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.65 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Augsburg 60% (last 10 home games) | 1899 Hoffenheim 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 10 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 42% | Draw 31% | 1899 Hoffenheim 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG FC Augsburg 1.65 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.130 / def 1.034 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.863 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
1899 Hoffenheim xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim FAQs
What time does FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
FC Augsburg 0 - 0 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 10) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 42% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 1.13x the league average against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Augsburg's last 43 games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
42%
2.36
31%
3.25
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.94
1.29
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
5%
19.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.29 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 13W 11D 19L from 43 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
1899 Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 19L across 43 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.16 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 9W 6D 6L from their last 21 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — FC Augsburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record stands at 7W 4D 10L across their last 21 away games, a 1.19 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.84 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 84%.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
FC Augsburg (Home) vs 1899 Hoffenheim (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Augsburg
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim Form FAQs
What form are FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.57 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 10 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Aug 2021, when 1899 Hoffenheim won FC Augsburg 0-4 1899 Hoffenheim.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
4
Draws
5
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Augsburg have won 1, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 April 2026: FC Augsburg 2-2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Augsburg at 76%, 1899 Hoffenheim at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Augsburg and 81% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of FC Augsburg's games and 81% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Augsburg's matches and 81% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 90% of 1899 Hoffenheim's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Augsburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim finished level at 0-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.65 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.29 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.6 short of their projected output. 1899 Hoffenheim landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 1.13 / defence 1.03 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.86 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 42% | Draw 31% | 1899 Hoffenheim 27%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 67%, 1899 Hoffenheim 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 77%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 84% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.16 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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