VfB Stuttgart 2-3 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart host Eintracht Frankfurt at MHPArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's home record at MHPArena: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at MHPArena than their overall form suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VfB Stuttgart at 1.60 PPG versus Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, Eintracht Frankfurt 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 60% and Eintracht Frankfurt 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 74% | Eintracht Frankfurt 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.13 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.317 / defence 0.984 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.018 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.434. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 2.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 VfB Stuttgart games / 43 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 51% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Frankfurt 23%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Eintracht Frankfurt 4.35. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 51% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Frankfurt 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.13 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.317 / def 0.984 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.018 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 51% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (6 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 2W | Draws 2 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.85
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.57
1.44
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
12%
8.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
3%
36.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.44 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 26W 8D 9L from 43 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 11L across 43 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours VfB Stuttgart by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eintracht Frankfurt heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 15W 5D 1L from 21 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 6W 6D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.72 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 70%.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 26W 8D 9L in their last 43 games (2.00 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 16W 16D 11L in their last 43 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.38 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.14 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or Eintracht Frankfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfB Stuttgart
3
Draws
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 67%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for VfB Stuttgart and 67% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eintracht Frankfurt defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat VfB Stuttgart 2-3 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.13 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.44 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.32 / defence 0.98 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.02 / defence 1.02, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 51% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Frankfurt 23%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Eintracht Frankfurt win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 74%, Eintracht Frankfurt 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.49. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Frankfurt winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.