Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union Berlin (37%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Borussia Mönchengladbach face Union Berlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome Union Berlin to BORUSSIA-PARK in Bundesliga (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 28 September 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Union Berlin have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Union Berlin have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Union Berlin are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Union Berlin have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2024, ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 Union Berlin — a draw.
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Union Berlin trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% versus Union Berlin 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 74% | Union Berlin 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.27 xG and Union Berlin 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.960 / defence 1.175 | Union Berlin attack 0.729 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.630. Union Berlin bring a tight defence (rating 0.781, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output down. Union Berlin's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.40. Data: built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 38 games and Union Berlin's last 38.
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 31% | Draw 32% | Union Berlin 37%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.21 | Draw 3.12 | Union Berlin 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% (last 10 home games) | Union Berlin 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 5 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 31% | Draw 32% | Union Berlin 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.27 / Union Berlin 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.960 / def 1.175 | Union Berlin attack 0.729 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.630 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Union Berlin xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin FAQs
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 28 September 2024 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 5) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 31% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 0.96x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 38 games and Union Berlin's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
31%
3.21
32%
3.12
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.67
1.40
Union Berlin xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
8%
12.97
10%
9.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.40 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 8W 13D 17L from 38 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 19L across 38 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 0.97 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 5W 6D 8L from their last 19 home games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 2W 6D 11L across their last 19 away games, a 0.63 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 0.97 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
Union Berlin
Early Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach (Home) vs Union Berlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
Union Berlin
Early Season
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin Form FAQs
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 8W 13D 17L in their last 38 games (0.97 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 11W 8D 19L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Union Berlin away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.11 PPG; Union Berlin away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, Union Berlin have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 68%, Union Berlin 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 79% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 32% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 26% of games; Union Berlin in 63%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 32% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 32% of Union Berlin's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 53% of Union Berlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Borussia Mönchengladbach defy the odds to beat Union Berlin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat Union Berlin 1-0 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.27 xG and Union Berlin 1.40 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Berlin landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against Union Berlin attack 0.73 / defence 0.78, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 31% | Draw 32% | Union Berlin 37%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Borussia Mönchengladbach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 74%, Union Berlin 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Berlin's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.97 PPG, Union Berlin 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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