Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 16 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome FC Augsburg to Borussia-Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 January 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach at Borussia-Park this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Borussia-Park this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 1.40 PPG versus FC Augsburg's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, FC Augsburg have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 2 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 0–3 with FC Augsburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Augsburg have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 55% versus FC Augsburg 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 59% | FC Augsburg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.40 xG and FC Augsburg 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.789 / defence 1.186 | FC Augsburg attack 0.776 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.484. Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 49 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 36% | Draw 29% | FC Augsburg 35%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | FC Augsburg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% | FC Augsburg 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Borussia-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 36% | Draw 29% | FC Augsburg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.40 / FC Augsburg 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.789 / def 1.186 | FC Augsburg attack 0.776 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.484 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.37
FC Augsburg xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 11 January 2026 at Borussia-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Borussia-Park.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 36% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg?
Record (8 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W | Draws 1 | FC Augsburg 5W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
36%
2.75
29%
3.47
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.77
1.37
FC Augsburg xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.37 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 17W 10D 22L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg's form line: 15W 12D 22L from 49 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.24 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1.25 PPG from 24 outings (8W 6D 10L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 6W 6D 12L from 24 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.06 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 17W 10D 22L in their last 49 games (1.24 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 15W 12D 22L in their last 49 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or FC Augsburg away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.25 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when FC Augsburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 50%, FC Augsburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 58% (FC Augsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 33% of games; FC Augsburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 50% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 58% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Mönchengladbach run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat FC Augsburg 4-0 at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.40 xG and FC Augsburg 1.37 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Augsburg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.79 / defence 1.19 against FC Augsburg attack 0.78 / defence 1.09, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 36% | Draw 29% | FC Augsburg 35%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 59%, FC Augsburg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.24 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.