Bayern München 1-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayern München (89%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bayern München face FC Augsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees FC Augsburg travel to Allianz Arena to take on Bayern München. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 January 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bayern München — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 4.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayern München at Allianz Arena this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Arena.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Bayern München have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Bayern München have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 9 past contests while FC Augsburg have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 3–2 with Bayern München winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bayern München and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Bayern München in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 65%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayern München 54% versus FC Augsburg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bayern München 85% | FC Augsburg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayern München 4.00 xG and FC Augsburg 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayern München attack 1.879 / defence 0.863 | FC Augsburg attack 0.714 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.733 / away 1.433. Bayern München carry an above-average attack strength of 1.879 — their λ of 4.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Augsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Bayern München's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Bayern München games / 52 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayern München 89% | Draw 8% | FC Augsburg 3%. Fair-value odds: Bayern München 1.12 | Draw 12.50 | FC Augsburg 33.33. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (89%) — a 86pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 87% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 4.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 87% — a total xG of 4.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayern München are the pick at 89% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 87% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Bayern München 50% | FC Augsburg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayern München vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Allianz Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayern München 89% | Draw 8% | FC Augsburg 3% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 87% | BTTS 58% | xG Bayern München 4.00 / FC Augsburg 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Bayern München attack 1.879 / def 0.863 | FC Augsburg attack 0.714 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.733 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (89%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
4.00
Bayern München xG
Expected Goals
0.88
FC Augsburg xG
58%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayern München vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Bayern München vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Allianz Arena.
What was the final score in Bayern München vs FC Augsburg?
Bayern München 1 - 2 FC Augsburg.
Where is Bayern München vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Arena.
What competition is Bayern München vs FC Augsburg part of?
Bayern München vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayern München vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Bayern München a 89% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 3% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayern München vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bayern München and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Bayern München vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 87%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and FC Augsburg?
Record (9 meetings): Bayern München 7W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 2W.
What form are Bayern München and FC Augsburg in?
Bayern München (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 4.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bayern München's attack rating (1.88) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 4.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Bayern München's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 4-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (8.1%), 4-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
89%
1.13
8%
12.53
3%
29.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 0
8.1%
Home win
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
4.00
Bayern München xG
Total xG
4.89
0.88
FC Augsburg xG
1.13
89%
Home win
12.53
8%
Draw
29.94
3%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
87%
Over 2.5
1.15
13%
Under 2.5
7.69
72%
Over 3.5
1.39
28%
Under 3.5
3.57
54%
Over 4.5
1.85
46%
Under 4.5
2.17
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
2%
54.87
Win to Nil
37%
2.73
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayern München vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 4-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Bayern München and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 4.00 expected goals for Bayern München and 0.88 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 4.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayern München vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 89%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Bayern München have picked up 2.54 PPG on a 41W 9D 2L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg's form line: 15W 14D 23L from 52 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 1.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bayern München have posted 2.64 PPG from 25 outings (21W 3D 1L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 6W 6D 13L from 25 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bayern München are averaging 3.27 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.06 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Bayern München have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayern München
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayern München and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Bayern München have gone 41W 9D 2L in their last 52 games (2.54 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 15W 14D 23L in their last 52 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayern München at home or FC Augsburg away?
Bayern München's home record (2.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayern München at home: 2.64 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Bayern München or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayern München have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bayern München and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2024, when Bayern München won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayern München's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bayern München
0
Draws
3
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayern München have won 7, FC Augsburg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bayern München and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Bayern München 1-2 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Bayern München and FC Augsburg?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayern München 52%, FC Augsburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 92% for Bayern München and 60% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 68% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayern München keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayern München home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayern München play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Bayern München's recent matches and 48% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bayern München vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 92% of Bayern München's matches and 60% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Bayern München and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Bayern München have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Augsburg defy the odds to beat Bayern München 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Bayern München 1-2 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 4.00 xG and FC Augsburg 0.88 xG, a combined 4.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bayern München fell 3.0 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.88 / defence 0.86 against FC Augsburg attack 0.71 / defence 1.23, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayern München 89% | Draw 8% | FC Augsburg 3%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 89%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 3% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 87%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 72% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 85%, FC Augsburg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayern München's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.