1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Köln face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to RheinEnergieStadion to face 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Köln's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
1. FC Köln's home record at RheinEnergieStadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Bayer Leverkusen arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 9 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to 1. FC Köln's 2, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 64% and Bayer Leverkusen 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 56% | Bayer Leverkusen 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.53 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 1.020 / defence 1.162 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.073 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.464. Data: 30 1. FC Köln games / 64 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 33% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 45%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.22. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 80% | Bayer Leverkusen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 33% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.53 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 1.020 / def 1.162 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.073 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Bayer Leverkusen xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
1. FC Köln 1 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 33% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (9 meetings): 1. FC Köln 2W | Draws 1 | Bayer Leverkusen 6W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 1.02x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.07x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 30/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
33%
3.08
23%
4.43
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.35
1.82
Bayer Leverkusen xG
3.08
33%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
5%
19.08
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.82 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Köln come into this having played 64 games, going 25W 17D 22L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-D.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.89 PPG from 64 outings (34W 19D 11L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Köln's home form reads 14W 8D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 1.88 points per game from 32 outings (16W 12D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.06 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 66%.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Current Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 25W 17D 22L in their last 64 games (1.44 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 34W 19D 11L in their last 64 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.56 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 0-4 on 16 Dec 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
1
Draws
7
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for 1. FC Köln, 69% for Bayer Leverkusen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for 1. FC Köln and 59% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of 1. FC Köln's games and 69% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 59% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out 1. FC Köln 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat 1. FC Köln 1-2 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.53 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.82 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.02 / defence 1.16 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 33% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 45%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 56%, Bayer Leverkusen 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.