SV Wehen 1-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SV Wehen face Hamburger SV.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BRITA-Arena plays host to SV Wehen versus Hamburger SV in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 9). Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
SV Wehen's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
SV Wehen's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 1L across their last 5 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from their last 5 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hamburger SV (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Hamburger SV have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
SV Wehen half-time and goal-timing data (last 10 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Hamburger SV half-time and goal-timing data (last 10 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Wehen 50% versus Hamburger SV 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 40% | Hamburger SV 70%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SV Wehen surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Hamburger SV have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 1.00 xG and Hamburger SV 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.601 / defence 1.012 | Hamburger SV attack 0.957 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.322. SV Wehen's attack rating of 0.601 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from SV Wehen's last 8 games and Hamburger SV's last 42.
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 29% | Draw 29% | Hamburger SV 43%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 3.50 | Draw 3.45 | Hamburger SV 2.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SV Wehen 40% (last 5 home games) | Hamburger SV 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 9 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 29% | Draw 29% | Hamburger SV 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG SV Wehen 1.00 / Hamburger SV 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.601 / def 1.012 | Hamburger SV attack 0.957 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Hamburger SV xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Wehen vs Hamburger SV FAQs
What time does SV Wehen vs Hamburger SV kick off?
SV Wehen vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs Hamburger SV?
SV Wehen 1 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is SV Wehen vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs Hamburger SV part of?
SV Wehen vs Hamburger SV is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 9) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 29% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both SV Wehen and Hamburger SV will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will SV Wehen vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SV Wehen's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (0.96x) against SV Wehen's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from SV Wehen's last 8 games and Hamburger SV's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
29%
3.50
29%
3.45
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
2.28
1.28
Hamburger SV xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
8%
12.60
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Wehen vs Hamburger SV Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for SV Wehen and 1.28 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Wehen's recent record stands at 4W 2D 4L from 10 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Hamburger SV, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 4L across 10 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for SV Wehen against 1.60 for Hamburger SV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SV Wehen have managed 2W 2D 1L from their last 5 home games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hamburger SV's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across their last 5 away games, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hamburger SV's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Wehen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Wehen are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.70 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Hamburger SV in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
SV Wehen (Home) vs Hamburger SV (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Wehen
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ SV Wehen vs Hamburger SV Form FAQs
What form are SV Wehen and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Wehen at home or Hamburger SV away?
SV Wehen's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Wehen at home: 1.60 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 0.80 PPG.
Have SV Wehen or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Wehen have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 17 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Wehen
1
Draws
1
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Wehen vs Hamburger SV H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and Hamburger SV?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Wehen have won 0, Hamburger SV have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and Hamburger SV last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 March 2024: Hamburger SV 3-0 SV Wehen.
Who has won more matches between SV Wehen and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Wehen 40%, Hamburger SV 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (SV Wehen) and 80% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: SV Wehen keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Wehen vs Hamburger SV Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Wehen and Hamburger SV matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of SV Wehen's recent matches and 60% of Hamburger SV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SV Wehen and Hamburger SV matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of SV Wehen's recent games and 80% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Wehen and Hamburger SV matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of SV Wehen's recent matches and 80% of Hamburger SV's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Wehen and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Wehen and Hamburger SV finished level at 1-1 at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 1.00 xG and Hamburger SV 1.28 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.60 / defence 1.01 against Hamburger SV attack 0.96 / defence 0.98, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 29% | Draw 29% | Hamburger SV 43%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 40%, Hamburger SV 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Wehen's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Wehen 1.40 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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