Eintracht Braunschweig 1-3 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Braunschweig at 45%, yet in-form SC Paderborn 07 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees SC Paderborn 07 travel to Eintracht-Stadion to take on Eintracht Braunschweig. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 October 2023, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Eintracht Braunschweig — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Braunschweig have posted 4W 3D 3L at Eintracht-Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Eintracht Braunschweig are significantly better at Eintracht-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Paderborn 07 are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Eintracht Braunschweig register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Eintracht Braunschweig, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2023, ended 1–5 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Braunschweig 60% and SC Paderborn 07 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 55% | SC Paderborn 07 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.45 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.815 / defence 0.932 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.903 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.297. Data: 42 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 42 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 45% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 28%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | SC Paderborn 07 3.57. Eintracht Braunschweig hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Braunschweig are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Paderborn 07 (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Braunschweig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Braunschweig 60% | SC Paderborn 07 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 45% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.45 / SC Paderborn 07 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.815 / def 0.932 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.903 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.689 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Braunschweig (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.09
SC Paderborn 07 xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 3 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 45% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Braunschweig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (2 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 0W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eintracht Braunschweig's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Braunschweig Win
45%
2.25
28%
3.60
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.54
1.09
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
7%
15.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.09 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record stands at 10W 11D 21L from 42 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 14L across 42 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eintracht Braunschweig heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eintracht Braunschweig have managed 8W 5D 8L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 5W 8D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SC Paderborn 07's season.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.88 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 62%.
Last 42 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 10W 11D 21L in their last 42 games (0.98 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 19W 9D 14L in their last 42 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.38 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2023, when SC Paderborn 07 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
3
Draws
3
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 1-1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 52%, SC Paderborn 07 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 67% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 62% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Eintracht Braunschweig's matches and 67% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-3 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.45 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.09 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.81 / defence 0.93 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.90 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 45% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 28%, with Eintracht Braunschweig to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 55%, SC Paderborn 07 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.