SV Elversberg 2-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 February 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
SV Elversberg (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, SV Elversberg have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for SV Elversberg against 1.30 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for SV Elversberg, 0 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
SV Elversberg half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 60% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 67% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 2.10 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.176 / defence 1.296 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.951 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.539. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing SV Elversberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 SV Elversberg games / 55 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 43% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 35%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.33 | Draw 4.76 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 43% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Elversberg 80% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 43% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 75% | xG SV Elversberg 2.10 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 1.176 / def 1.296 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.951 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.539 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.90
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SV Elversberg 2 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 43% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 35% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (3 meetings): SV Elversberg 1W | Draws 2 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SV Elversberg's attack rating (1.18) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.95x) against SV Elversberg's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
43%
2.30
21%
4.75
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
4.00
1.90
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.98
Clean Sheet
15%
6.67
12%
8.21
Win to Nil
7%
15.33
4%
23.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.90 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, SV Elversberg have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 21W 12D 22L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 21W 13D 21L from 55 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for SV Elversberg against 1.38 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SV Elversberg have posted 1.44 PPG from 27 outings (11W 6D 10L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 7W 7D 13L from 27 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.47 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 21W 12D 22L in their last 55 games (1.36 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 21W 13D 21L in their last 55 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.44 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Elversberg won 6-0 on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Elversberg have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Elversberg
2
Draws
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 63%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for SV Elversberg and 52% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg have failed to score in 26% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of SV Elversberg's games and 48% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Elversberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of SV Elversberg's matches and 52% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do SV Elversberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Elversberg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 2.10 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.90 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.18 / defence 1.30 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 43% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 35%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 67%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.36 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.