SV Elversberg 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde plays host to SV Elversberg versus Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 19 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Elversberg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, SV Elversberg have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for SV Elversberg, 1.70 for Fortuna Düsseldorf — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SV Elversberg lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 2–0 with SV Elversberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SV Elversberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 56% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 64% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 2.16 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.356 / defence 1.104 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.096 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.262. SV Elversberg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.356 — their λ of 2.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 63 SV Elversberg games / 63 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 51% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 26%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.85. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Elversberg are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.68 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: SV Elversberg 60% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 51% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG SV Elversberg 2.16 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 1.356 / def 1.104 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.096 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
SV Elversberg 1 - 1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 51% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (3 meetings): SV Elversberg 1W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W.
What form are SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.16. Flip it around — Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack (1.10x) against SV Elversberg's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
51%
1.95
22%
4.48
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
3.68
1.53
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
12%
8.65
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
3%
32.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.53 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Elversberg come into this having played 63 games, going 25W 15D 23L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Fortuna Düsseldorf sit at 1.73 PPG from 63 outings (31W 16D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for SV Elversberg against 1.73 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SV Elversberg's home form reads 14W 6D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken 1.84 points per game from 31 outings (16W 9D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.92 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 62%.
Last 63 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Current Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 25W 15D 23L in their last 63 games (1.43 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 31W 16D 16L in their last 63 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.55 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortuna Düsseldorf won 0-5 on 26 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Elversberg have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SV Elversberg
2
Draws
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 2, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 SV Elversberg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 55%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SV Elversberg and 64% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of SV Elversberg's games and 64% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SV Elversberg's matches and 64% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 30, as SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 2.16 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.53 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SV Elversberg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.36 / defence 1.10 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.10 / defence 1.09, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 51% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 26%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 64%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.43 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.