SV Darmstadt 98 1-3 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 16 as SV Darmstadt 98 welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SV Darmstadt 98 — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this season: 6W 0D 1L from 7 home games — 2.57 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.86 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 7 home games (71%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf away from home this season: 3W 1D 4L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
On current form, SV Darmstadt 98 have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 53% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 73% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 2.00 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.423 / defence 0.733 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.694 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.320. SV Darmstadt 98 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.423 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 0.733 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 15 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 15 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 66% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 9%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.52 | Draw 4.00 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 11.11. The model has a clear lean to SV Darmstadt 98 (66%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 14% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 66% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 45% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 2.00 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.423 / def 0.733 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.694 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
45%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
SV Darmstadt 98 1 - 3 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 66% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 9% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.42x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
66%
1.52
25%
3.93
9%
11.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.67
0.67
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
1.52
66%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
11.44
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
34%
2.97
1%
84.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0.67 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Darmstadt 98's recent record stands at 9W 2D 4L from 15 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 7L across 15 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Darmstadt 98 by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Düsseldorf heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SV Darmstadt 98 have managed 6W 0D 1L from 7 games — 2.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.93 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 2.47 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.27 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 67%.
Last 15 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 9W 2D 4L in their last 15 games (1.93 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.57 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or Fortuna Düsseldorf been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SV Darmstadt 98 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 8 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 86% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 14%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 43% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 57% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 43% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SV Darmstadt 98 1-3 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 2.00 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.67 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Fortuna Düsseldorf outscored their 0.67 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.42 / defence 0.73 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.69 / defence 1.15, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 66% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 9%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Fortuna Düsseldorf win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 73%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.