SV Darmstadt 98 1-1 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Schalke 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 27 as SV Darmstadt 98 welcome FC Schalke 04 to Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (SV Darmstadt 98) versus 1.40 (FC Schalke 04). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, FC Schalke 04 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with FC Schalke 04 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 63% and FC Schalke 04 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 62% | FC Schalke 04 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.47 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.180 / defence 0.736 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.855 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.294. FC Schalke 04's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 0.736 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 60 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 51% | Draw 29% | FC Schalke 04 20%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | FC Schalke 04 5.00. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 40% | FC Schalke 04 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 51% | Draw 29% | FC Schalke 04 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.47 / FC Schalke 04 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.180 / def 0.736 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.855 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
0.81
FC Schalke 04 xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Schalke 04?
SV Darmstadt 98 1 - 1 FC Schalke 04.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 51% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Schalke 04?
Record (5 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 3W | Draws 0 | FC Schalke 04 2W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Schalke 04 in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (1.18) and FC Schalke 04's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
51%
1.94
29%
3.45
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.29
0.81
FC Schalke 04 xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
5%
22.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0.81 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Darmstadt 98's recent record stands at 24W 19D 17L from 60 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Schalke 04, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 21L across 60 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.52 PPG, FC Schalke 04 on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SV Darmstadt 98 have managed 18W 7D 5L from 30 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Schalke 04's away record stands at 10W 8D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.48 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 24W 19D 17L in their last 60 games (1.52 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 25W 14D 21L in their last 60 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.03 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Schalke 04 runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2022, when FC Schalke 04 won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
2
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Schalke 04?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, FC Schalke 04 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 1-1 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Schalke 04?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 50%, FC Schalke 04 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 47% (FC Schalke 04).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; FC Schalke 04 in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play FC Schalke 04?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 47% of FC Schalke 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 47% of FC Schalke 04's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Schalke 04 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Regular Season - 27, as SV Darmstadt 98 and FC Schalke 04 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.47 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.81 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.18 / defence 0.74 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.85 / defence 0.78, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 51% | Draw 29% | FC Schalke 04 20%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 62%, FC Schalke 04 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.52 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.