SV Darmstadt 98 0-0 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor plays host to SV Darmstadt 98 versus 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 19 October 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in SV Darmstadt 98's favour (2.00 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: SV Darmstadt 98 2W, 1. FC Magdeburg 2W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 1–4 with 1. FC Magdeburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 64% and 1. FC Magdeburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 62% | 1. FC Magdeburg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.67 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.091 / defence 0.733 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.747 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.483. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 0.733 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 42 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 58% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 18%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | 1. FC Magdeburg 5.56. The model has a clear lean to SV Darmstadt 98 (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: SV Darmstadt 98 40% | 1. FC Magdeburg 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 58% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.67 / 1. FC Magdeburg 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.091 / def 0.733 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.747 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
0.81
1. FC Magdeburg xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 58% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (4 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 2W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.09x the league average against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (0.75x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.14
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.48
0.81
1. FC Magdeburg xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
3%
29.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.3 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0.81 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 42 games, going 16W 11D 15L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.33 PPG from 42 outings (15W 11D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.33 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 11W 5D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.62 points per game from 21 outings (10W 4D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.69 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 16W 11D 15L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 15W 11D 16L in their last 42 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.81 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 4-1 on 2 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SV Darmstadt 98
2
Draws
2
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 1-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 52%, 1. FC Magdeburg 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 67% (1. FC Magdeburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 71% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 67% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SV Darmstadt 98's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg finished level at 0-0 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.67 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 0.81 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.7 short of their projected output. 1. FC Magdeburg landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.09 / defence 0.73 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.75 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 58% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 18%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 62%, 1. FC Magdeburg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.40 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.