SSV Ulm 1846 2-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Ulm 1846 at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SSV Ulm 1846 host SV Darmstadt 98 at Donaustadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SSV Ulm 1846 — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Ulm 1846 at Donaustadion this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SSV Ulm 1846 at 0.70 PPG versus SV Darmstadt 98's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, SV Darmstadt 98 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
SSV Ulm 1846 trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Ulm 1846 54% versus SV Darmstadt 98 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Ulm 1846 38% | SV Darmstadt 98 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.44 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.754 / defence 1.015 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.921 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.294. SSV Ulm 1846's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing SSV Ulm 1846's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 SSV Ulm 1846 games / 26 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 41% | Draw 29% | SV Darmstadt 98 30%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | SV Darmstadt 98 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SSV Ulm 1846 at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Ulm 1846 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SSV Ulm 1846 50% | SV Darmstadt 98 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Donaustadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 41% | Draw 29% | SV Darmstadt 98 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG SSV Ulm 1846 1.44 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.754 / def 1.015 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.921 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: SSV Ulm 1846 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Expected Goals
1.21
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Donaustadion.
What was the final score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
SSV Ulm 1846 2 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Donaustadion.
What competition is SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives SSV Ulm 1846 a 41% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SSV Ulm 1846 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (1 meetings): SSV Ulm 1846 0W | Draws 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 0W.
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SSV Ulm 1846's attack rating (0.75) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus SSV Ulm 1846's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Ulm 1846 Win
41%
2.44
29%
3.50
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Total xG
2.65
1.21
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
7%
13.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for SSV Ulm 1846 and 1.21 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SSV Ulm 1846 come into this having played 26 games, going 3W 11D 12L for 0.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D. The sample for SSV Ulm 1846 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.19 PPG from 26 outings (8W 7D 11L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of SSV Ulm 1846 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SSV Ulm 1846's home form reads 2W 4D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L).
The Goals Picture
SSV Ulm 1846 are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.73 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Darmstadt 98 in 65%.
Last 26 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Ulm 1846
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 3W 11D 12L in their last 26 games (0.77 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Ulm 1846 at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Ulm 1846 at home: 0.83 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Darmstadt 98 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SSV Ulm 1846
1
Draws
0
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2025, when SSV Ulm 1846 2-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Darmstadt 98?
SSV Ulm 1846 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SSV Ulm 1846 see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SSV Ulm 1846 at 58%, SV Darmstadt 98 at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 42% for SSV Ulm 1846 and 83% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Ulm 1846 have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Ulm 1846 home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Ulm 1846 play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of SSV Ulm 1846's games and 75% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of SSV Ulm 1846's matches and 83% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
SSV Ulm 1846 have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SSV Ulm 1846 edge out SV Darmstadt 98 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Ulm 1846 beat SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 at Donaustadion, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Ulm 1846 1.44 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.21 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.75 / defence 1.01 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.92 / defence 1.32, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Ulm 1846 41% | Draw 29% | SV Darmstadt 98 30%, with SSV Ulm 1846 to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Ulm 1846 38%, SV Darmstadt 98 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.77. Form was overturned, with SSV Ulm 1846 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.