SC Paderborn 07 1-2 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Paderborn 07 face Hertha BSC.

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Analysis

Hertha BSC make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 January 2025 at 12:30 UK time.

Form

SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SC Paderborn 07 at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Hertha BSC's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.20 for Hertha BSC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and Hertha BSC's last 10 away games) — SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hertha BSC in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 2 for Hertha BSC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Aug 2024, ended SC Paderborn 07 2–1 Hertha BSC — a SC Paderborn 07 win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 72% and Hertha BSC 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 72% | Hertha BSC 74%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.42 xG and Hertha BSC 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.011 / defence 1.081 | Hertha BSC attack 1.056 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.470. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 51 games and Hertha BSC's last 51.

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 31% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 42%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 3.24 | Draw 3.66 | Hertha BSC 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.42 / 1.68) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and Hertha BSC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 60% (last 10 home games) | Hertha BSC 80% (last 10 away games).

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