SC Paderborn 07 2-4 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host FC Schalke 04 at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 December 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 at Home Deluxe Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Schalke 04 have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, FC Schalke 04 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 71% and FC Schalke 04 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 73% | FC Schalke 04 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.50 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.032 / defence 0.802 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.830 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.524. Data: 48 SC Paderborn 07 games / 48 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 46% | Draw 30% | FC Schalke 04 23%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | FC Schalke 04 4.35. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 60% | FC Schalke 04 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Friday 6 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 46% | Draw 30% | FC Schalke 04 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.50 / FC Schalke 04 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.032 / def 0.802 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.830 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.524 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.01
FC Schalke 04 xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 6 December 2024 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
SC Paderborn 07 2 - 4 FC Schalke 04.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 46% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
Record (4 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 1 | FC Schalke 04 2W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (1.03) and FC Schalke 04's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
46%
2.16
30%
3.28
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.52
1.01
FC Schalke 04 xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
5%
19.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.01 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 22W 13D 13L from 48 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Schalke 04, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 22L across 48 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Schalke 04 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 11W 6D 6L from 23 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Schalke 04's away record stands at 4W 6D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.58 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 22W 13D 13L in their last 48 games (1.65 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 15W 11D 22L in their last 48 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.70 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Schalke 04 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
5
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-3 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 61%, FC Schalke 04 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for SC Paderborn 07 and 56% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; FC Schalke 04 in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play FC Schalke 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 56% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 56% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Schalke 04 cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over SC Paderborn 07.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat SC Paderborn 07 2-4 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.50 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.01 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 outscored their 1.01 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.03 / defence 0.80 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.83 / defence 1.00, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 46% | Draw 30% | FC Schalke 04 23%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a FC Schalke 04 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 73%, FC Schalke 04 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with FC Schalke 04 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.