Hannover 96 1-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hannover 96 at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Hannover 96 welcome SV Darmstadt 98 to Heinz von Heiden-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hannover 96 have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hannover 96 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SV Darmstadt 98 — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hannover 96 1.80 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hannover 96, 2 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Hannover 96 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hannover 96 trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hannover 96 59% versus SV Darmstadt 98 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 59% | SV Darmstadt 98 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 2.24 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 1.068 / defence 0.682 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.373 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.451. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.359 — this is suppressing Hannover 96's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. SV Darmstadt 98 have an above-average attack strength of 1.373 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Hannover 96's defence rating of 0.682 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Hannover 96 games / 12 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 56% | Draw 22% | SV Darmstadt 98 21%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | SV Darmstadt 98 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Hannover 96 (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hannover 96 as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Hannover 96 60% | SV Darmstadt 98 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Heinz von Heiden-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 56% | Draw 22% | SV Darmstadt 98 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG Hannover 96 2.24 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 1.068 / def 0.682 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.373 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.36
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Hannover 96 1 - 2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 56% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (4 meetings): Hannover 96 1W | Draws 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 2W.
What form are Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hannover 96's attack rating (1.07) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus Hannover 96's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.48
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
3.60
1.36
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
11%
9.42
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
2%
43.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.36 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hannover 96's recent record stands at 20W 14D 12L from 46 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 7W 12D 27L across 46 games — 0.72 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hannover 96 by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Darmstadt 98 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hannover 96 have managed 14W 5D 3L from 22 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Hannover 96 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 4W 6D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hannover 96 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.22 scored and 2.37 conceded.
Last 46 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 20W 14D 12L in their last 46 games (1.61 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 7W 12D 27L in their last 46 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
Hannover 96's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 2.14 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2021, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hannover 96's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hannover 96
1
Draws
5
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 8 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 Hannover 96.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hannover 96 59%, SV Darmstadt 98 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Hannover 96 and 68% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; SV Darmstadt 98 in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Hannover 96's games and 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Hannover 96's matches and 68% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SV Darmstadt 98 defy the odds to beat Hannover 96 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat Hannover 96 1-2 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 2.24 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.36 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hannover 96 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 1.07 / defence 0.68 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.37 / defence 1.36, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 56% | Draw 22% | SV Darmstadt 98 21%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a SV Darmstadt 98 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 59%, SV Darmstadt 98 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.72. Form was overturned, with SV Darmstadt 98 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.