Hamburger SV 2-2 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hamburger SV (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Hamburger SV face FC Schalke 04.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hamburger SV welcome FC Schalke 04 to Volksparkstadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 23 November 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Hamburger SV — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Hamburger SV have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Hamburger SV are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Schalke 04 stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, FC Schalke 04 have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Hamburger SV hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for FC Schalke 04 and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Jan 2024, ended Hamburger SV 2–0 FC Schalke 04 — a Hamburger SV win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Hamburger SV and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 4.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
FC Schalke 04 in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 61% versus FC Schalke 04 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 63% | FC Schalke 04 61%). Note also that FC Schalke 04 surrender HT leads in 41% of cases while Hamburger SV recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.90 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.268 / defence 0.831 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.753 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.483. Hamburger SV carry an above-average attack rating of 1.268 — their 1.90 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. FC Schalke 04's attack rating of 0.753 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Hamburger SV's last 46 games and FC Schalke 04's last 46.
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 59% | Draw 25% | FC Schalke 04 17%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.70 | Draw 4.04 | FC Schalke 04 6.06. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Hamburger SV's last 10 home games and FC Schalke 04's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hamburger SV 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Schalke 04 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 13 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 59% | Draw 25% | FC Schalke 04 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Hamburger SV 1.90 / FC Schalke 04 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.268 / def 0.831 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.753 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
0.93
FC Schalke 04 xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 FAQs
What time does Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04?
Hamburger SV 2 - 2 FC Schalke 04.
Where is Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 13) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 59% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 1.27x the league average against FC Schalke 04's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hamburger SV's last 46 games and FC Schalke 04's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
59%
1.70
25%
4.04
17%
6.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.83
0.93
FC Schalke 04 xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
6.06
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
15%
6.68
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
2%
40.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 0.93 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Hamburger SV have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 22W 11D 13L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
FC Schalke 04's form line: 15W 10D 21L from 46 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Hamburger SV are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Schalke 04.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hamburger SV have posted 2.09 PPG from their last 23 home games (15W 3D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Hamburger SV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Schalke 04 have gone 4W 5D 14L from their last 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Schalke 04's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.61 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
Hamburger SV (Home) vs FC Schalke 04 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hamburger SV
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 Form FAQs
What form are Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 22W 11D 13L in their last 46 games (1.67 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 15W 10D 21L in their last 46 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
Hamburger SV's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 2.09 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or FC Schalke 04 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FC Schalke 04 in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from July 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Hamburger SV
3
Draws
0
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hamburger SV have won 3, FC Schalke 04 have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2025: FC Schalke 04 2-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 56%, FC Schalke 04 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Hamburger SV) and 56% (FC Schalke 04). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; FC Schalke 04 in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Hamburger SV's games and 56% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Hamburger SV's matches and 56% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 74% of FC Schalke 04's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV and FC Schalke 04 finished level at 2-2 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.90 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.93 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.27 / defence 0.83 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.75 / defence 0.98, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 59% | Draw 25% | FC Schalke 04 17%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 63%, FC Schalke 04 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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