Eintracht Braunschweig 3-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Braunschweig at 38%, yet in-form Hamburger SV provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Eintracht Braunschweig welcome Hamburger SV to Eintracht-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 November 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Eintracht Braunschweig — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Eintracht-Stadion, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eintracht-Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hamburger SV stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hamburger SV — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Hamburger SV have the better historical record — 4 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 0–4 with Hamburger SV winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hamburger SV have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Braunschweig trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Hamburger SV trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 47% versus Hamburger SV 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 53% | Hamburger SV 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.46 xG and Hamburger SV 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.928 / defence 0.807 | Hamburger SV attack 1.112 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.550. Data: 45 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 45 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 38% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 35%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Hamburger SV 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Braunschweig as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hamburger SV (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Braunschweig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Eintracht Braunschweig 30% | Hamburger SV 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 38% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.46 / Hamburger SV 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.928 / def 0.807 | Hamburger SV attack 1.112 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.550 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Braunschweig (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Hamburger SV xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 8 November 2024 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Eintracht Braunschweig 3 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 38% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Braunschweig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV?
Record (4 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 0W | Draws 0 | Hamburger SV 4W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eintracht Braunschweig's attack at 0.93x the league average against Hamburger SV's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Braunschweig Win
38%
2.64
27%
3.67
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.85
1.39
Hamburger SV xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
9%
10.61
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.39 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Braunschweig come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 8D 24L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.71 PPG from 45 outings (22W 11D 12L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Eintracht Braunschweig's home form reads 9W 5D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Eintracht Braunschweig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.32 points per game from 22 outings (7W 8D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.98 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 60%.
Last 45 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 13W 8D 24L in their last 45 games (1.04 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 22W 11D 12L in their last 45 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or Hamburger SV away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.45 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Eintracht Braunschweig or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Braunschweig have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Eintracht Braunschweig have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2024, when Hamburger SV won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
0
Draws
4
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV?
From 6 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, Hamburger SV have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Hamburger SV 2-4 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 46%, Hamburger SV 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 64% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play Hamburger SV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 64% of Hamburger SV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent games and 64% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Braunschweig cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hamburger SV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat Hamburger SV 3-1 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.46 xG and Hamburger SV 1.39 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Braunschweig beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.93 / defence 0.81 against Hamburger SV attack 1.11 / defence 0.99, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 38% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 35%, with Eintracht Braunschweig to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 53%, Hamburger SV 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Braunschweig winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.