Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 42% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Fortuna Düsseldorf welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Merkur Spiel-Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 9 November 2024 at 19:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

SC Paderborn 07 — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SC Paderborn 07 away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Fortuna Düsseldorf) versus 1.70 (SC Paderborn 07). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

SC Paderborn 07 have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.2 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2024, ended Fortuna Düsseldorf 3–4 SC Paderborn 07 — a SC Paderborn 07 win.

The H2H data backs the away side. SC Paderborn 07 have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 4.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% and SC Paderborn 07 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% | SC Paderborn 07 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.65 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.982 / defence 1.210 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.034 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.482. Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SC Paderborn 07's projected output up. Data: built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 45 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 45.

Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 34% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 42%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.97 | Draw 4.11 | SC Paderborn 07 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.65 / 1.86) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (SC Paderborn 07 4 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 home games and SC Paderborn 07's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% (last 10 home games) | SC Paderborn 07 80% (last 10 away games).

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