FC Schalke 04 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Schalke 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Schalke 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf meet at VELTINS-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Schalke 04's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04 at VELTINS-Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fortuna Düsseldorf have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for FC Schalke 04, 1.20 for Fortuna Düsseldorf — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC Schalke 04, 2 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Schalke 04 — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Schalke 04 59% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Schalke 04 63% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 1.34 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.068 / defence 1.356 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.059 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.547. Data: 49 FC Schalke 04 games / 49 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 21% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Düsseldorf (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 2.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Schalke 04 70% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: VELTINS-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 21% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Schalke 04 1.34 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.068 / def 1.356 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.059 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.547 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
2.22
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at VELTINS-Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
FC Schalke 04 1 - 1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at VELTINS-Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 21% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (4 meetings): FC Schalke 04 1W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2W.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Schalke 04's attack at 1.07x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack (1.06x) against FC Schalke 04's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 2.22.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
21%
4.77
23%
4.31
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
0 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
3.57
2.22
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
4.77
21%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
11%
9.23
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
2%
44.02
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 2.22 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Schalke 04 come into this having played 49 games, going 16W 11D 22L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fortuna Düsseldorf sit at 1.78 PPG from 49 outings (25W 12D 12L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of FC Schalke 04 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Schalke 04's home form reads 11W 5D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken 2.00 points per game from 24 outings (14W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 2.02 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 49 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 16W 11D 22L in their last 49 games (1.20 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 25W 12D 12L in their last 49 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 1.58 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 2.00 PPG.
Have FC Schalke 04 or Fortuna Düsseldorf been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Schalke 04 have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Schalke 04 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Schalke 04 have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
FC Schalke 04
2
Draws
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 3, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when FC Schalke 04 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Schalke 04 58%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Schalke 04 and 67% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FC Schalke 04's games and 54% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Schalke 04's matches and 67% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do FC Schalke 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Schalke 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf finished level at 1-1 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.34 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.22 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 1.07 / defence 1.36 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.06 / defence 0.83, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 21% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 63%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.