Eintracht Braunschweig 0-4 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Braunschweig at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 31 as Eintracht Braunschweig welcome Hamburger SV to Eintracht-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Eintracht Braunschweig — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Eintracht-Stadion, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hamburger SV stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hamburger SV away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Eintracht Braunschweig at 1.40 PPG versus Hamburger SV's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Hamburger SV have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Hamburger SV winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hamburger SV have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Braunschweig trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Hamburger SV trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 55% versus Hamburger SV 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 55% | Hamburger SV 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.46 xG and Hamburger SV 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.962 / defence 0.753 | Hamburger SV attack 1.070 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.348. Eintracht Braunschweig's defence rating of 0.753 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 64 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 45% | Draw 28% | Hamburger SV 27%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Hamburger SV 3.70. Eintracht Braunschweig hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Braunschweig as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Braunschweig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Braunschweig 40% | Hamburger SV 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 45% | Draw 28% | Hamburger SV 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.46 / Hamburger SV 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.962 / def 0.753 | Hamburger SV attack 1.070 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Braunschweig (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Hamburger SV xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Eintracht Braunschweig 0 - 4 Hamburger SV.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 45% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Braunschweig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV?
Record (3 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 0W | Draws 0 | Hamburger SV 3W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eintracht Braunschweig's attack at 0.96x the league average against Hamburger SV's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Braunschweig Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.58
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.54
1.09
Hamburger SV xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
6%
15.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.09 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Braunschweig come into this having played 64 games, going 19W 13D 32L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.75 PPG from 64 outings (33W 13D 18L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Eintracht Braunschweig's home form reads 13W 7D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.44 points per game from 32 outings (12W 10D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.94 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 61%.
Last 64 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Current Season
Hamburger SV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 19W 13D 32L in their last 64 games (1.09 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 33W 13D 18L in their last 64 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or Hamburger SV away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.44 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Eintracht Braunschweig have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2024, when Hamburger SV won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
0
Draws
4
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV?
From 6 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, Hamburger SV have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Hamburger SV 2-4 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 50%, Hamburger SV 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 59% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 62% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent games and 59% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Eintracht Braunschweig 0-4 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.46 xG and Hamburger SV 1.09 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Braunschweig fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Hamburger SV outscored their 1.09 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.96 / defence 0.75 against Hamburger SV attack 1.07 / defence 1.02, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 45% | Draw 28% | Hamburger SV 27%, with Eintracht Braunschweig to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Hamburger SV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 55%, Hamburger SV 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.