Eintracht Braunschweig 4-2 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees 1. FC Nürnberg travel to Eintracht-Stadion to take on Eintracht Braunschweig. The game is scheduled for Friday 2 September 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 0W 1D 5L from 6 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.17 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Eintracht Braunschweig have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eintracht Braunschweig at Eintracht-Stadion this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 home games — 0.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. 1. FC Nürnberg's 0.80 PPG return is 0.63 points per game ahead of Eintracht Braunschweig's 0.17 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Eintracht Braunschweig 33% | 1. FC Nürnberg 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 67% | 1. FC Nürnberg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.11 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.752 / defence 1.167 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.949 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.447. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 40 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 26% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Nürnberg 49%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | 1. FC Nürnberg 2.04. 1. FC Nürnberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Nürnberg at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Braunschweig 33% | 1. FC Nürnberg 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 26% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Nürnberg 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.11 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.752 / def 1.167 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.949 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.60
1. FC Nürnberg xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Eintracht Braunschweig 4 - 2 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 26% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating (0.75) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
26%
3.79
25%
4.02
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.71
1.60
1. FC Nürnberg xG
3.79
26%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
5%
18.81
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.60 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record stands at 0W 1D 5L from 6 games, a 0.17 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Nürnberg, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 3L across 6 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Nürnberg by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eintracht Braunschweig heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Eintracht Braunschweig have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 6 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Early Season
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 games (0.17 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
1. FC Nürnberg's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 0.33 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Eintracht Braunschweig or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Braunschweig have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2025, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Eintracht Braunschweig
2
Draws
5
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 8 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 33%, 1. FC Nürnberg 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 67% (1. FC Nürnberg).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg in 33%; Eintracht Braunschweig have failed to score in 67% of games; 1. FC Nürnberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 67% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent games and 67% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Braunschweig cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over 1. FC Nürnberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat 1. FC Nürnberg 4-2 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.11 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.60 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Eintracht Braunschweig beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.75 / defence 1.17 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.95 / defence 0.93, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 26% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Nürnberg 49%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Eintracht Braunschweig win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 67%, 1. FC Nürnberg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.17. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Braunschweig winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.