1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 33 as 1. FC Nürnberg welcome SV Elversberg to Max-Morlock-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Max-Morlock-Stadion, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SV Elversberg — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
SV Elversberg's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Nürnberg 0.70 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for 1. FC Nürnberg, 0 for SV Elversberg and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 56% and SV Elversberg 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 59% | SV Elversberg 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.49 xG and SV Elversberg 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.697 / defence 1.177 | SV Elversberg attack 1.066 / defence 1.416. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.410. 1. FC Nürnberg's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SV Elversberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.416 — this is suppressing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 1. FC Nürnberg games / 32 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 32% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 44%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | SV Elversberg 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 30% | SV Elversberg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 32% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.49 / SV Elversberg 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.697 / def 1.177 | SV Elversberg attack 1.066 / def 1.416 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.77
SV Elversberg xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg?
1. FC Nürnberg 3 - 0 SV Elversberg.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 32% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Elversberg?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 1W | Draws 0 | SV Elversberg 0W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Elversberg in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. SV Elversberg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 0.70x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Elversberg's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
32%
3.11
24%
4.22
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.26
1.77
SV Elversberg xG
3.11
32%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
17%
5.87
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
5%
18.24
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.77 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 32 games, going 10W 7D 15L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, SV Elversberg sit at 1.34 PPG from 32 outings (12W 7D 13L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.16 PPG, SV Elversberg on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 5W 4D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Elversberg have taken 1.31 points per game from 16 outings (6W 3D 7L).
The Goals Picture
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.53 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg in 66%.
Last 32 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
SV Elversberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 10W 7D 15L in their last 32 games (1.16 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 12W 7D 13L in their last 32 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SV Elversberg away?
SV Elversberg's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.19 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Elversberg runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting SV Elversberg specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
0
Draws
3
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Elversberg?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, SV Elversberg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 3-2 SV Elversberg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 50%, SV Elversberg 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 69% for SV Elversberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SV Elversberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 75% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 69% of SV Elversberg's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Nürnberg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SV Elversberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat SV Elversberg 3-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.49 xG and SV Elversberg 1.77 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SV Elversberg landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.70 / defence 1.18 against SV Elversberg attack 1.07 / defence 1.42, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 32% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 44%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual 1. FC Nürnberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 59%, SV Elversberg 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.16 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.