1. FC Nürnberg 2-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 3 as 1. FC Nürnberg welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to Max-Morlock-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 0W 2D 0L from 2 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fortuna Düsseldorf are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 0.76 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.823 / defence 0.998 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.919 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 0.899 / away 1.407. Data: 2 1. FC Nürnberg games / 2 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 18% | Draw 36% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 45%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 5.56 | Draw 2.78 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.22. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 18% | Draw 36% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 0.76 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.823 / def 0.998 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.919 / def 1.025 | league avg home 0.899 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Nürnberg 2 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 18% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 45% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (0.82) and Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
18%
5.52
36%
2.74
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.05
1.29
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
5.52
18%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
5%
20.07
21%
4.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 16.6 | 10.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.29 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 0W 2D 0L from 2 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortuna Düsseldorf by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Nürnberg heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. Fortuna Düsseldorf's attacking output running into 1. FC Nürnberg's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or Fortuna Düsseldorf been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Dec 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 5, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
1. FC Nürnberg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 0.76 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.29 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 18% | Draw 36% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 45%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Nürnberg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 50%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Nürnberg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Nürnberg scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.