1. FC Nürnberg 1-0 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 70% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Nürnberg face Eintracht Braunschweig.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg host Eintracht Braunschweig at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 21 December 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1. FC Nürnberg's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Eintracht Braunschweig — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Nürnberg at 1.20 PPG versus Eintracht Braunschweig's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1 for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 1. FC Nürnberg 2–1 Eintracht Braunschweig — a 1. FC Nürnberg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
1. FC Nürnberg trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Eintracht Braunschweig trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 60% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 64% | Eintracht Braunschweig 56%). Note also that Eintracht Braunschweig surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while 1. FC Nürnberg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 2.81 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.230 / defence 1.134 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.681 / defence 1.490. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.544. Eintracht Braunschweig's defence rating of 1.490 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output up. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating of 0.681 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Data: built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 50 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 50.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 70% | Draw 18% | Eintracht Braunschweig 12%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.43 | Draw 5.53 | Eintracht Braunschweig 8.18. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Nürnberg (70%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.81 / 1.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 home games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Braunschweig 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 17 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 December 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 70% | Draw 18% | Eintracht Braunschweig 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 2.81 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.230 / def 1.134 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.681 / def 1.490 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.544 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.81
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
67%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig FAQs
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
1. FC Nürnberg 1 - 0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 17) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 70% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 1.23x the league average against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence at 1.49x — combine the two and it projects 2.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 50 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
70%
1.43
18%
5.53
12%
8.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.81
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
4.00
1.19
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.53
18%
Draw
8.18
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
6%
16.63
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
1%
135.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 2.81 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.19 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 50 games, going 16W 11D 23L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Eintracht Braunschweig sit at 1.02 PPG from 50 outings (14W 9D 27L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.18 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 9W 6D 9L across their last 24 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Braunschweig have taken 0.62 points per game from their last 24 away games (4W 3D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.06 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg (Home) vs Eintracht Braunschweig (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 16W 11D 23L in their last 50 games (1.18 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 14W 9D 27L in their last 50 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.38 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 May 2025, when 1. FC Nürnberg won Eintracht Braunschweig 1-4 1. FC Nürnberg.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
1
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 5, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 50%, Eintracht Braunschweig 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 67% for Eintracht Braunschweig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 38% of games; Eintracht Braunschweig in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 46% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 67% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 83% of Eintracht Braunschweig's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Nürnberg edge out Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 2.81 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.19 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Eintracht Braunschweig landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.23 / defence 1.13 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.68 / defence 1.49, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 70% | Draw 18% | Eintracht Braunschweig 12%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 64%, Eintracht Braunschweig 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.18 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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