1. FC Köln 1-2 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees 1. FC Magdeburg travel to RheinEnergieSTADION to take on 1. FC Köln. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Köln stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Köln's home record at RheinEnergieSTADION: 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. 1. FC Magdeburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (1. FC Köln) versus 1.40 (1. FC Magdeburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
1. FC Magdeburg in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 55% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 42% | 1. FC Magdeburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.61 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 1.173 / defence 1.046 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.312 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.362. 1. FC Magdeburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 1. FC Köln games / 38 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 32% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 43%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Magdeburg are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: 1. FC Köln 40% | 1. FC Magdeburg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: RheinEnergieSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 32% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.61 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 1.173 / def 1.046 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.312 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.87
1. FC Magdeburg xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at RheinEnergieSTADION.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
1. FC Köln 1 - 2 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieSTADION.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 32% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Magdeburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Köln's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Magdeburg's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Magdeburg's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
32%
3.15
26%
3.90
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.48
1.87
1. FC Magdeburg xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
15%
6.49
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
5%
20.42
9%
11.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.87 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Köln come into this having played 38 games, going 7W 13D 18L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.21 PPG from 38 outings (11W 13D 14L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Köln on 0.89 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
1. FC Köln's home form reads 5W 4D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (5W 5D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.45 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 38 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Early Season
1. FC Magdeburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 7W 13D 18L in their last 38 games (0.89 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
1. FC Magdeburg's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.00 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
1. FC Köln
0
Draws
2
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 0, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2025, when 1. FC Magdeburg 3-0 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Magdeburg?
1. FC Magdeburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 47%, 1. FC Magdeburg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (1. FC Köln) and 47% (1. FC Magdeburg).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg in 32%; 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 42% of games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 47% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 47% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Magdeburg edge out 1. FC Köln 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat 1. FC Köln 1-2 at RheinEnergieSTADION, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.61 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.87 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.17 / defence 1.05 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.31 / defence 0.89, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 32% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 43%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 42%, 1. FC Magdeburg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 0.89 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.