Rodez 1-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rodez at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAU make the trip to Stade Paul Lignon to face Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Friday 6 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Rodez (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's home record at Stade Paul Lignon: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PAU have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Rodez. A 0.50 PPG lead over PAU (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rodez register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, PAU in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Rodez, 2 for PAU and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with Rodez winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Rodez — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
PAU — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 67% and PAU 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 64% | PAU 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 2.33 xG and PAU 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.374 / defence 1.409 | PAU attack 0.962 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.056. Rodez carry an above-average attack strength of 1.374 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Rodez's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Rodez games / 52 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 58% | Draw 20% | PAU 23%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | PAU 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Rodez (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 80% | PAU 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 6 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 58% | Draw 20% | PAU 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 69% | xG Rodez 2.33 / PAU 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.374 / def 1.409 | PAU attack 0.962 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Rodez (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.43
PAU xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs PAU kick off?
Rodez vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 December 2024 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs PAU?
Rodez 1 - 0 PAU.
Where is Rodez vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs PAU part of?
Rodez vs PAU is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 58% chance of winning, PAU a 23% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Rodez and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and PAU?
Record (5 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 2 | PAU 2W.
What form are Rodez and PAU in?
Rodez (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rodez's attack at 1.37x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.96x) against Rodez's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
58%
1.74
20%
5.12
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Rodez xG
Total xG
3.76
1.43
PAU xG
1.74
58%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
10%
10.26
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
2%
44.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Rodez and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Rodez and 1.43 for PAU, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs PAU?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rodez's recent record stands at 19W 16D 17L from 52 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 18L across 52 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Rodez against 1.35 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 11W 8D 6L from 25 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAU's away record stands at 7W 8D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.48 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and PAU in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 19W 16D 17L in their last 52 games (1.40 PPG), while PAU have gone 18W 16D 18L in their last 52 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or PAU away?
Rodez's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.64 PPG; PAU away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won 0-5 on 14 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rodez
4
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and PAU?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 3, PAU have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Rodez 2-2 PAU.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for Rodez, 68% for PAU — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Rodez and 64% for PAU. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Rodez's games and 68% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Rodez's matches and 64% of PAU's.
Do Rodez and PAU tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, PAU in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out PAU 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat PAU 1-0 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 2.33 xG and PAU 1.43 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rodez fell 1.3 short of their projected output. PAU landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.37 / defence 1.41 against PAU attack 0.96 / defence 1.21, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 58% | Draw 20% | PAU 23%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 64%, PAU 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
PAU's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.40 PPG, PAU 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.