Rodez 2-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 43%, yet the head-to-head data favours Rodez — this Rodez vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Estac Troyes travel to Stade Paul Lignon to take on Rodez in Ligue 2 (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Friday 10 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rodez stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rodez at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Estac Troyes — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Estac Troyes away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rodez 1.70 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Rodez: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Estac Troyes, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2024, ended Rodez 3–0 Estac Troyes — a Rodez win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Rodez and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Rodez trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 45%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Estac Troyes trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 66% versus Estac Troyes 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 60% | Estac Troyes 53%). Note also that Estac Troyes surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Rodez recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 47% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.22 xG and Estac Troyes 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.093 / defence 1.319 | Estac Troyes attack 1.096 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.026. Rodez's defence rating of 1.319 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Estac Troyes's projected output up. Data: built from Rodez's last 55 games and Estac Troyes's last 55.
Result probabilities: Rodez 31% | Draw 26% | Estac Troyes 43%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.25 | Draw 3.80 | Estac Troyes 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estac Troyes at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rodez's last 10 home games and Estac Troyes's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rodez 70% (last 10 home games) | Estac Troyes 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 18 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 10 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 31% | Draw 26% | Estac Troyes 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Rodez 1.22 / Estac Troyes 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.093 / def 1.319 | Estac Troyes attack 1.096 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Estac Troyes xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rodez vs Estac Troyes FAQs
What time does Rodez vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Rodez vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 10 January 2025 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Estac Troyes?
Rodez 2 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is Rodez vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Estac Troyes part of?
Rodez vs Estac Troyes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 18) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 31% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rodez and Estac Troyes will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rodez vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rodez's attack at 1.09x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rodez's last 55 games and Estac Troyes's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
31%
3.25
26%
3.80
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.70
1.48
Estac Troyes xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
7%
14.32
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rodez vs Estac Troyes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Rodez and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Rodez and 1.48 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rodez's recent record stands at 20W 17D 18L from 55 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 15W 18D 22L across 55 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.40 PPG, Estac Troyes on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 12W 8D 7L from their last 27 home games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 5W 10D 12L across their last 27 away games, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.11 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
Rodez (Home) vs Estac Troyes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rodez
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Rodez vs Estac Troyes Form FAQs
What form are Rodez and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 20W 17D 18L in their last 55 games (1.40 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 15W 18D 22L in their last 55 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Estac Troyes away?
Rodez's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.63 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Rodez or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 13 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Sep 2024, when Rodez won Estac Troyes 0-3 Rodez.
Rodez's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Rodez
1
Draws
0
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Rodez vs Estac Troyes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Estac Troyes?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Rodez have won 5, Estac Troyes have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rodez and Estac Troyes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2026: Rodez 2-1 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Estac Troyes?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 54% of those situations.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 67%, Estac Troyes 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Rodez) and 41% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 37%; Estac Troyes in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rodez vs Estac Troyes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rodez and Estac Troyes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Rodez's recent matches and 37% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rodez and Estac Troyes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Rodez's recent games and 41% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Estac Troyes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Rodez's recent matches and 59% of Estac Troyes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Estac Troyes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Estac Troyes 2-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.22 xG and Estac Troyes 1.48 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.09 / defence 1.32 against Estac Troyes attack 1.10 / defence 0.83, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 31% | Draw 26% | Estac Troyes 43%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 60%, Estac Troyes 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.40 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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