Rodez 0-2 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Rodez welcome RED Star FC 93 to Stade Paul Lignon. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's home record at Stade Paul Lignon: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, RED Star FC 93 have posted 2W 1D 5L from 8 away outings — 0.88 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Rodez carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Rodez trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
RED Star FC 93 trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 69% versus RED Star FC 93 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 69% | RED Star FC 93 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 2.27 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.236 / defence 1.252 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.873 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 0.975. RED Star FC 93 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Rodez's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Rodez games / 16 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 64% | Draw 19% | RED Star FC 93 17%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | RED Star FC 93 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Rodez (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 80% | RED Star FC 93 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 3 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 64% | Draw 19% | RED Star FC 93 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 59% | xG Rodez 2.27 / RED Star FC 93 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.236 / def 1.252 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.873 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.407 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Rodez (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.07
RED Star FC 93 xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 January 2025 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs RED Star FC 93?
Rodez 0 - 2 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 64% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rodez and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and RED Star FC 93?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rodez and RED Star FC 93 in?
Rodez (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rodez's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against RED Star FC 93's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.27. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
64%
1.55
19%
5.25
17%
6.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Rodez xG
Total xG
3.33
1.07
RED Star FC 93 xG
1.55
64%
Home win
5.25
19%
Draw
6.03
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
10%
9.64
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
2%
58.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Rodez and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Rodez and 1.07 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs RED Star FC 93?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rodez's recent record stands at 5W 5D 6L from 16 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RED Star FC 93, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 8L across 16 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.25 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 3W 1D 3L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RED Star FC 93's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 games (1.25 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 5W 3D 8L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
Rodez's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.43 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rodez's record when hosting RED Star FC 93 specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Rodez
3
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and RED Star FC 93?
From 5 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when RED Star FC 93 2-3 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rodez at 86%, RED Star FC 93 at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Rodez and 43% for RED Star FC 93. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play RED Star FC 93?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Rodez's games and 57% of RED Star FC 93's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Rodez's matches and 43% of RED Star FC 93's.
Do Rodez and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RED Star FC 93 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Rodez 0-2 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 2.27 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.07 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rodez fell 2.3 short of their projected output. RED Star FC 93 outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.24 / defence 1.25 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.87 / defence 1.30, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 64% | Draw 19% | RED Star FC 93 17%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a RED Star FC 93 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 69%, RED Star FC 93 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.25 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.