Quevilly 1-2 Caen – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Quevilly at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Quevilly host Caen at Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Quevilly have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Quevilly's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stade Robert Diochon this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Caen stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Caen away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Caen's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Quevilly's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Quevilly register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Caen in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Quevilly have won 2, Caen 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Quevilly in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Caen in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 51% versus Caen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 46% | Caen 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.27 xG and Caen 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.799 / defence 1.006 | Caen attack 1.073 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.104. Quevilly's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Caen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.359 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Quevilly games / 67 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Quevilly 37% | Draw 29% | Caen 33%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Caen 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Quevilly are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Caen (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Quevilly offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 60% | Caen 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights