Nimes 0-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nimes face Paris FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade des Costières plays host to Nimes versus Paris FC in Ligue 2 (matchday 10). Kick-off: Saturday 1 October 2022 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Nimes's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Nimes at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Paris FC (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Paris FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Paris FC edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Mar 2022, ended Nimes 1–1 Paris FC — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Nimes — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Paris FC — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 51% versus Paris FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 53% | Paris FC 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nimes surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Paris FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 0.81 xG and Paris FC 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 0.759 / defence 0.784 | Paris FC attack 0.956 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.169. Nimes's attack rating of 0.759 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Nimes have a tight defence (rating 0.784), which is pulling Paris FC's projected output down. Data: built from Nimes's last 47 games and Paris FC's last 47.
Result probabilities: Nimes 31% | Draw 34% | Paris FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 3.22 | Draw 2.92 | Paris FC 2.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS Yes probability 32% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Nimes's lower xG of 0.81 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris FC at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.69 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Nimes's last 10 home games and Paris FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Nimes 40% (last 10 home games) | Paris FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 10 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Saturday 1 October 2022 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 31% | Draw 34% | Paris FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% (Under 76%) | BTTS Yes 32% (No 68%) | xG Nimes 0.81 / Paris FC 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 0.759 / def 0.784 | Paris FC attack 0.956 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Paris FC xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nimes vs Paris FC FAQs
What time does Nimes vs Paris FC kick off?
Nimes vs Paris FC kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Paris FC?
Nimes 0 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Nimes vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Paris FC part of?
Nimes vs Paris FC is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 10) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 31% chance of winning, Paris FC a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Nimes and Paris FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (68%).
Will Nimes vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (76%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nimes's attack at 0.76x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.96x) against Nimes's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Nimes's last 47 games and Paris FC's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
31%
3.22
34%
2.92
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Nimes xG
Total xG
1.69
0.88
Paris FC xG
3.22
31%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.09
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 16.2 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nimes vs Paris FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.2%.
How many goals are Nimes and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Nimes and 0.88 for Paris FC, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nimes come into this having played 47 games, going 16W 9D 22L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.64 PPG from 47 outings (21W 14D 12L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five.
Paris FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Nimes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Nimes's home form reads 8W 5D 10L across their last 23 home games, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.43 points per game from their last 23 away games (9W 6D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nimes are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.28 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
Nimes (Home) vs Paris FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nimes
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Nimes vs Paris FC Form FAQs
What form are Nimes and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 16W 9D 22L in their last 47 games (1.21 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 21W 14D 12L in their last 47 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.26 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Nimes or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Paris FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 22 April 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Paris FC have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris FC won Paris FC 3-0 Nimes on 22 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nimes have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nimes
1
Draws
3
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Nimes vs Paris FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Paris FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Nimes have won 0, Paris FC have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Nimes and Paris FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 April 2023: Paris FC 3-0 Nimes.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nimes see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 52%, Paris FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Nimes) and 44% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Nimes have failed to score in 39% of games; Paris FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nimes vs Paris FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nimes and Paris FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Nimes's recent matches and 56% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nimes and Paris FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Nimes's recent games and 44% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Nimes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Nimes 0-1 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 0.81 xG and Paris FC 0.88 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nimes fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 0.76 / defence 0.78 against Paris FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.84, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 31% | Draw 34% | Paris FC 35%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 53%, Paris FC 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Nimes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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